确定各国抗击大流行病的有效性:COVID-19病例

Zeynep Büsra Keskin, E. Delice
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摘要

这项研究的目的是开发一个多维综合效率分析(mdea)模型,以便在大流行爆发时实施。该模型的第一阶段涉及确定可能影响防治大流行病进程的投入和产出标准。第二阶段采用了两种方法:critical方法,使用客观值确定标准权重;模糊SWARA方法,它基于主观价值和决策者的意见,因为假设标准可能无法精确和完整地确定。采用SOWIA方法将两种方法得到的主客观指标权重进行组合,确定综合指标权重。在第三阶段,根据指标权重分别采用EATWOS、OCRA和FDEA方法获得三个独立的效率排名。在第四阶段,采用TPOP方法对这些效率排名进行合并,得到一个单一的精确排名。本研究提出的模型采用三种不同的效率分析方法共同确定国家的效率;即利用不同方法的不同观点和不同的计算程序。以往的研究大多采用单一的效率方法来分析各国的效率。城市人口比例、糖尿病患病率、65岁以上人口、重症监护病房床位数和疫苗接种剂量数是研究不同于其他研究的特定标准。预计本研究将对文献作出贡献,因为它是第一个提出评估大流行期间各国表现的模型的研究。该模型的实施是为了评估经合组织国家在应对全球普遍危机的新冠肺炎方面的效率。考虑到所有已取得的成果,很难宣称一项标准就能有效地防治这一流行病。控制感染率——从而控制受感染人数——对于有效防治这一流行病至关重要。各国也有可能改变政策或倾向于采取更严格的政策来控制病毒的传播。
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Determining the effectiveness of countries in combating pandemics: COVID-19 case
The aim of this study is to develop a multi-dimensional integrated efficiency analysis (MDIEA) model to be implemented when a pandemic breaks out. The first phase of the model involved the determination of input and output criteria that might affect the course of combat against the pandemic. Two methods were employed in the second phase: CRITIC method, which uses objective values to determine criteria weights; and, Fuzzy SWARA method, which is based on subjective values and decision makers’ opinions due to the assumption that the criteria might not be determined precisely and completely. The subjective and objective criteria weights obtained from these two methods were combined using SOWIA method so that integrated criteria weights could be determined. In the third phase, three separate efficiency rankings were obtained using EATWOS, OCRA and FDEA methods depending on the criteria weights. In the fourth phase, these efficiency rankings were combined by employing TPOP method in order to obtain one single precise ranking.   The model proposed in this study determines countries’ efficiency by employing three different efficiency analysis methods together; i.e. it makes use of different point of views and different calculation procedures of different methods. The previous studies mostly analyzed the efficiency of countries by using one single efficiency method. Urban population ratio, prevalence rate of diabetes, population of people over 65 years old, number of beds in intensive care units and number of vaccination doses are the study-specific criteria that are different from other studies. The present study is expected to contribute to the literature since it is the first study that proposes a model to evaluate the performances of countries during pandemics. The proposed model was implemented to assess OECD countries’ efficiency in their fight against COVID-19, which was a prevailing crisis worldwide.  When all the obtained results are considered, it is difficult to claim that one single criterion is effective in combating against the pandemic. Keeping the rate of infection – thus, the number of infected people- under control is crucial for an effective combat against the pandemic. It is also possible for countries to change their policies or prefer to adopt stricter policies so as to control the spread of the virus.
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Erratum to: On interval-valued bilevel optimization problems using upper convexificators On the conformability of regular line graphs A new modified bat algorithm for global optimization A multi-stage stochastic programming approach for an inventory-routing problem considering life cycle On characterizations of solution sets of interval-valued quasiconvex programming problems
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