农业自然灾害与农村贫困的关系——基于安徽省面板数据的分析

Gong Qianwen, Zhang Junbiao
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引用次数: 10

摘要

自然灾害的发生给农业生产带来了巨大的负面影响。在欠发达地区,自然灾害的影响更为严重,甚至由于应对自然灾害的能力较弱而导致贫困的发生。基于定性分析的研究较多,但定量研究较少。本文旨在弥补以往定量研究的空白。在安徽省面板数据分析的基础上,农业自然灾害受灾面积占总播种面积的比例与农村贫困发生率明显呈负相关关系,这与以往的研究结果不相符。因此,作者提出了一种可能的解释。在实证结果的基础上,本文最后提出了正确认识农业自然灾害与农村贫困的对策建议,如构建农村自然防御体系、加强贫困地区农民的应对能力等。
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Relations between Agricultural Natural Disasters and Rural Poverty Based on Analysis of Panel Data in Anhui Province, China

The occurrence of natural disasters has a tremendous negative effect on agricultural production. The effect of natural disasters in undeveloped areas is more serious and even leads to the occurrence of poverty due to the weak capacity to handle these disasters. Although there is much research based on qualitative analysis, the quantitative research is rare. This article aims to cover the previous quantitative research gap. On the basis of the analysis of panel data in Anhui province, it is evident that there is a negative correlation between the proportion of the area affected by agricultural natural disasters to the total sown area and the incidence of rural poverty, which is not compatible with the previous studies. Therefore, the authors make a possible explanation. On the basis of the empirical results, some policies are recommended in the final part of this article on a correct understanding of agricultural natural disasters and rural poverty, such as building a rural natural defense system and strengthening the response capacity of farmers in impoverished areas.

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