中国能源结构变化与能源强度的影响分析

Guo Ju'e, Chai Jian, Xi Youmin
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引用次数: 22

摘要

本文以1980 ~ 2004年中国能源统计数据为基础,运用路径分析法,分析了一次能源结构、技术、管理与单位GDP能耗之间的关系,给出了一次能源结构对单位GDP能耗的直接影响程度、间接影响程度和综合影响程度。结果表明:技术变革和管理水平对单位GDP能耗起决定性作用,石油消费比重是单位GDP能耗的主要制约因素。在此基础上,建立了单位GDP能耗与一次能源消费结构的模型,并与通径分析结果消除了模型中的多重共线性,最后分析了一次能源结构对节能的影响。
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Analysis of Influences between the Energy Structure Change and Energy Intensity in China

In this article, based on the data of the energy statistics from 1980 to 2004, we analyze the relationship between the primary energy structures, technique, management, and the energy use per unit of GDP based on the path analysis approach and present the degree of the direct, indirect, and the overall influences of the primary energy structures on the energy use per unit of GDP. The results show that the technical change and management level play a decisive role in the energy use per unit of GDP, and the ratio of oil consumption was the major limiting factor to energy use per unit of GDP. We then found the model of the energy use per unit of GDP and the structures of the primary energy consumption, eliminated the multicollinearity in the model with the path analysis result, and finally, analyzed the influence of the primary energy structure on the energy conservation.

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