Local deforestation patterns and driving forces in a tropical dry forest in two municipalities of southern Oaxaca, Mexico (1985-2006))

The tropical dry forest is an ecosystem that is undergoing rapid changes. Although global driving forces behind these changes have been addressed at a local scale, spatio-temporal dynamics are still largely unknown. The main objective of this study was to identify the causes governing the dynamics of changes in land use and land cover in the tropical dry forest in two municipalities in Southern México. Satellite imagery and air photographs were used in a gis context to produce maps of land use and land cover for 1985, 1995 and 2006. A number of statistical methods (Markov chains, general lineal models and regression tree analysis) were applied to identify the proximate and the underlying causes of deforestation, agriculture being the most important one. When agriculture is mainly for self consumption, topographic factors determine its location. Increasing job opportunities in the tourism sector has resulted in the abandonment of agricultural land; consequently, the forest has recovered. Different studies have examined the dynamics of local deforestation and its driving forces in México; however, this study considered both spatial and temporal elements in order to identify the most important underlying driving forces of deforestation and its dynamics at local scale, and also compared two neighboring municipalities.