South China Sea: hypothetical oil spill trajectories and transnational impact

Oil spill trajectories are presented for various phases of the monsoons for four well locations in the South China Sea: BACH-HO, off the Mekong Delta, Vietnam (9°40′N 108°E); NIDO, off Northwest Palawan, the Philippines (11°N 118°50′E); CPC F-1 Wellsite, off southwest China (Taiwan) (18°N 109°E) and south of Hainan, China (23°N 120′E). These trajectories are combined in figures with published trajectories projected from these additional sites; TAPIS, off the east coast of peninsular Malaysia (6°45′N 114°30′E); TEMBUNGO, offshore northwest Sabah, Malaysia (6°45′N 114°30′E) and the upper Gulf of Thailand.

Vulnerable marine resources and extended maritime jurisdictions are superimposed on these trajectories and the interplay of the trajectories with these features is analyzed. A large oil spill at most of the sample sites would cross newly proclaimed international boundaries and impact valuable and vulnerable marine resources. This information is useful for contingency planning.