Trabecular Bone Score and Central Quantitative Computed Tomography for the Prediction of Vertebral Fragility Fractures in Postmenopausal Women.

Background: We aimed to investigate whether densitometry results and volumetric bone mineral density (vBMD) can predict vertebral fragility fractures (VFF) in postmenopausal women.

Methods: We enrolled 271 postmenopausal women aged >45 years who visited our hospital for health check-ups between September 2016 and September 2017. The lumbar spine (LS) and femoral neck (FN) densitometry results and trabecular bone score (TBS) were calculated using dual energy X-ray absorptiometry. vBMD was assessed using central quantitative computed tomography (cQCT). Baseline and follow-up X-ray images were reviewed to evaluate thoracolumbar vertebral compression fractures (CFs), according to the Genant criteria.

Results: At baseline, 76 patients (28.0%) had CF. Additional or progressive fractures were noted in 26 participants (9.6%) with a median follow-up of 19.5 months. The median TBS and cQCT were significantly higher in participants without baseline CF than those with baseline CF (p<0.001). During the follow-up, Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that T-scores of the LS and FN <-2.5, degraded microarchitecture based on the TBS (≤1.200), and vBMD <80 mg/cm3 was significantly associated with future osteoporotic CF. The final multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that baseline CF and low TBS and vBMD were significant risk factors for future VFF.

Conclusions: Participants with baseline CF and degraded microarchitecture had higher CF predisposition. Moreover, cQCT can predict future vertebral fractures.