Risk of Breast Cancer Progression after Treatment in the Western Region of Saudi Arabia.

Background: The risk of breast cancer progression is one of the most difficult factors to predict as it is studied in different populations, patient groups, or time frames, resulting in conflicting estimates of incidence rates reported in the literature. The purpose of this study is to identify predictive factors for breast cancer recurrences in a sample of the Middle Eastern population.

Methodology: A cohort retrospective study included all eligible breast cancer patients at the National Guard Health Affairs (NGHA) Hospital in Jeddah, Western region, from 2015 to 2021. Our primary outcome was the progression status of the patients; we adjusted for demographic, clinical, and molecule characteristics of the population. From 2015 to 2021, there were 319 patients diagnosed with breast cancer. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to estimate predictors of breast cancer progression.

Results: One of five breast cancer patients had breast cancer progression (20.83%), while 66.15% of the progression patients were between the ages of 41-65. In multivariate analysis, age, progesterone receptor (PR), family history, and tumor size were significant predictors of breast cancer progression. The age group of 20-40 years was a protective predictor of breast cancer progression, patients in the young age group were less likely to be diagnosed with progression (OR = 0.35; CI = 0.15, 0.81). While negative PRs and tumor size greater than 2 cm were significant predictor factors of breast cancer progression (OR = 2.07; CI = 1.09, 3.91, OR = 2.02; CI = 1.9, 3.78).

Conclusion: Although the effect of young age as a protective factor for the progression of breast cancer remains controversial, our study revealed that patients between 41 and 60 years of age had a higher rate of progression. Future larger prospective studies are needed to delineate the role of age and PR hormone receptors in determining the best treatment options for women with breast cancer in the Saudi population.