《两个国家的故事:由于流行病对加拿大和其他西方国家卫生保健计划的影响,加拿大和美国老年人口预测的变化》。

IF 1.3 Q3 GERONTOLOGY Journal of Population Ageing Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI:10.1007/s12062-022-09397-z
Eric Nauenberg, Carita Ng, Qing Zhu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

检查COVID-19死亡率统计数据,以确定人口预测是否会发生实质性变化,从而影响两国老年人的健康和长期护理规划。加拿大统计局和美国人口普查局的人口统计数据根据2019冠状病毒病特定年龄组的死亡率进行了调整,然后按五年增量进行了预测。然后使用每个预测值之间的线性插值将这些预测年化。考虑到65岁以上、75岁以上和85岁以上的老年人以及每个年龄组的抚养比率。预测显示,到2035年,老年人在人口中的比例将大致稳定在21%左右(美国)和24%左右(加拿大),而从2050年开始,75岁以上的老年人的比例将再次上升。由于大流行而进行的调整对这些预测影响不大,这表明,除非与大流行有关的死亡率的人口统计数据发生重大变化,否则资源规划所涉问题在很大程度上是无关紧要的。在为老年人服务的资源方面进行投资时,不需要在这些资产完全耗尽之前就打算重新利用它们。虽然人口平稳期可能会保持稳定,但老年人健康状况的预期下降速度仍存在不确定性。根据这一轨迹,社区一级的社会支持可以在延长老年人健康和独立的持续时间方面发挥重要作用。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

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A Tale of Two Countries: Changes to Canadian and U.S. Senior Population Projections due to the Pandemic-Implications for Health Care Planning in Canada and Other Western Countries.

To examine COVID-19 mortality demographics to determine if there will be any substantive shifts in population forecasts that will impact health and long-term care planning for seniors in both countries. Demographic data from Statistics Canada and the U.S. Census Bureau to 2060 are adjusted for COVID-19 age-group-specific mortality and then projected forward in five-year increments. These projections are then annualized using a linear imputation between each projected value. Consideration is given to the seniors 65 + , 75 + and 85 + as well as dependency ratios of each age category. Forecasts suggest that the proportion of seniors in the population will roughly plateau in 2035 at approximately 21% (U.S.) and 24% (Canada)-with another uptick observed beginning in 2050 for those aged 75 + . Adjustments due to the pandemic have had little impact on these projections suggesting that-unless there is a major shift in the demographics of pandemic-related mortality-the resource planning implications will be largely inconsequential. Investments in resources to serve seniors need not be done with the intention to repurpose these assets before they are fully depleted. While the demonstrated demographic plateau is likely to hold steady, there is uncertainty around the expected rate of decline in the health of seniors. Depending on this trajectory, community-level social supports could play a large role in lengthening the duration of senior health and independence.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.80
自引率
5.00%
发文量
45
期刊介绍: The Journal of Population Ageing examines the broad questions arising from global population ageing. It provides a forum for international cross-disciplinary debate on population ageing, focusing on theoretical and empirical research and methodological innovation and development. This interdisciplinary journal publishes editorials, original peer reviewed articles, and subject and literature reviews. It offers high quality research of interest to those working in the fields of demography, bio-demography, development studies, area studies, sociology, geography, history, social gerontology, economics, and social and health policy.
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