Coronavirus disease 2019 risk assessment of adults and geospatial mapping in selected communities of Southwest Nigeria.

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) remained a worldwide public health problem. Risk assessment and mapping can be deployed to assist in the control and management of disease outbreaks.

Aim: The aim of this study was to conduct COVID-19 risk assessment and mapping in selected communities of Southwest Nigeria.

Methods: This was a cross-sectional study of adults, 18 years and above, involving the use of multi-stage sampling. Data collection was done with a pre-tested, structured, interviewer-administered questionnaire. The Statistical Package for the Social Sciences version 23 and Environmental Systems Research Institute ArcGIS desktop version 10.5 were used for data analysis and spatial mapping, respectively. The threshold for statistical significance was set at P < 0.05.

Results: The respondents' mean age was 40.6 ± 14.5 years. Self-reported vulnerability factors identified included hypertension, diabetes mellitus, working in hospital facility, cigarette smoking and age ≥60 years amongst others. About a quarter (20.2%) had a high risk of COVID-19 following risk quantification. The risk cuts across geographical locations and socio-economic status. Education was significantly associated with COVID-19 risk. The spatial interpolation map revealed that the farther a community was from the high-burden area, the lower the risk of COVID-19.

Conclusion: There was a high prevalence of self-reported COVID-19 risk. Identified communities with COVID-19 high-risk burden in the risk mapping and those with stratified proximity to these areas need to be targeted by the government for a public health awareness campaign.