{"title":"预测生理模型的用例:关于乌克兰被冻住的俄罗斯士兵的战术见解。","authors":"Adam W Potter, David P Looney, Karl E Friedl","doi":"10.1080/22423982.2023.2194504","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Biomathematical models quantitatively describe human physiological responses to environmental and operational stressors and have been used for planning and real-time prevention of cold injury. These same models can be applied from a military tactical perspective to gain valuable insights into the health status of opponent soldiers. This paper describes a use case for predicting physiological status of Russian soldiers invading Ukraine using open-source information. In March 2022, media outlets reported Russian soldiers in a stalled convoy invading Ukraine were at serious risk of hypothermia and predicted these soldiers would be \"freezing to death\" within days because of declining temperatures (down to -20°C). Using existing Army models, clothing data and open-source intelligence, modelling and analyses were conducted within hours to quantitatively assess the conditions and provide science-based predictions. These predictions projected a significant increase in risks of frostbite for exposed skin and toes and feet, with a very low (negligible) risk of hypothermia. Several days later, media outlets confirmed these predictions, reporting a steep rise in evacuations for foot frostbite injuries in these Russian forces. This demonstrated what can be done today with the existing mathematical physiology and how models traditionally focused on health risk can be used for tactical intelligence.</p>","PeriodicalId":13930,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Circumpolar Health","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3000,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10062240/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Use case for predictive physiological models: tactical insights about frozen Russian soldiers in Ukraine.\",\"authors\":\"Adam W Potter, David P Looney, Karl E Friedl\",\"doi\":\"10.1080/22423982.2023.2194504\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>Biomathematical models quantitatively describe human physiological responses to environmental and operational stressors and have been used for planning and real-time prevention of cold injury. These same models can be applied from a military tactical perspective to gain valuable insights into the health status of opponent soldiers. This paper describes a use case for predicting physiological status of Russian soldiers invading Ukraine using open-source information. In March 2022, media outlets reported Russian soldiers in a stalled convoy invading Ukraine were at serious risk of hypothermia and predicted these soldiers would be \\\"freezing to death\\\" within days because of declining temperatures (down to -20°C). Using existing Army models, clothing data and open-source intelligence, modelling and analyses were conducted within hours to quantitatively assess the conditions and provide science-based predictions. These predictions projected a significant increase in risks of frostbite for exposed skin and toes and feet, with a very low (negligible) risk of hypothermia. Several days later, media outlets confirmed these predictions, reporting a steep rise in evacuations for foot frostbite injuries in these Russian forces. This demonstrated what can be done today with the existing mathematical physiology and how models traditionally focused on health risk can be used for tactical intelligence.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":13930,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"International Journal of Circumpolar Health\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-12-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10062240/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"International Journal of Circumpolar Health\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1080/22423982.2023.2194504\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Journal of Circumpolar Health","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/22423982.2023.2194504","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH","Score":null,"Total":0}
Use case for predictive physiological models: tactical insights about frozen Russian soldiers in Ukraine.
Biomathematical models quantitatively describe human physiological responses to environmental and operational stressors and have been used for planning and real-time prevention of cold injury. These same models can be applied from a military tactical perspective to gain valuable insights into the health status of opponent soldiers. This paper describes a use case for predicting physiological status of Russian soldiers invading Ukraine using open-source information. In March 2022, media outlets reported Russian soldiers in a stalled convoy invading Ukraine were at serious risk of hypothermia and predicted these soldiers would be "freezing to death" within days because of declining temperatures (down to -20°C). Using existing Army models, clothing data and open-source intelligence, modelling and analyses were conducted within hours to quantitatively assess the conditions and provide science-based predictions. These predictions projected a significant increase in risks of frostbite for exposed skin and toes and feet, with a very low (negligible) risk of hypothermia. Several days later, media outlets confirmed these predictions, reporting a steep rise in evacuations for foot frostbite injuries in these Russian forces. This demonstrated what can be done today with the existing mathematical physiology and how models traditionally focused on health risk can be used for tactical intelligence.
期刊介绍:
The International Journal of Circumpolar Health is published by Taylor & Francis on behalf of the Circumpolar Health Research Network [CircHNet]. The journal follows the tradition initiated by its predecessor, Arctic Medical Research. The journal specializes in circumpolar health. It provides a forum for many disciplines, including the biomedical sciences, social sciences, and humanities as they relate to human health in high latitude environments. The journal has a particular interest in the health of indigenous peoples. It is a vehicle for dissemination and exchange of knowledge among researchers, policy makers, practitioners, and those they serve.
International Journal of Circumpolar Health welcomes Original Research Articles, Review Articles, Short Communications, Book Reviews, Dissertation Summaries, History and Biography, Clinical Case Reports, Public Health Practice, Conference and Workshop Reports, and Letters to the Editor.