Trends in activities of daily living disability among Chinese older adults from 1998 to 2018: an age-period-cohort analysis.

This study aims to investigate the age, period, and cohort effects on trends in activities of daily living (ADL) disability among Chinese older adults; and to explore these three temporal effects on gender and residence disparities in disability. We utilized multiple cross-sectional waves of the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey data (1998-2018), including 89,511 participants aged above 65 years old. Our measurement of disability is the number of ADL items (dressing, bathing, indoor transferring, toileting, eating, and continence) participants can't perform independently. Hierarchical age-period-cohort cross-classified random effects models were conducted to investigate age, period and cohort trends in ADL disability. Results showed that ADL disability increased with age at an increasing rate. A V-shaped cohort trend and a fluctuated period trend were identified. Females and urban residents were associated with more ADL limitations. When age increased, the gender and residence gaps in disability further increased. The cohort-based gender and residence inequalities in ADL limitations converged with successive cohorts. The period-based residence gap in ADL limitations diverged throughout the 20-year period, while the corresponding period-based change in gender disparity was not significant. These findings suggested that age, period, and cohort had different and independent effects on ADL disability among Chinese older adults. The age effect on trends in ADL is stronger compared to period and cohort effects. The gender and residence disparities in disability increased with age and decreased with successive cohorts. These patterns might help inform healthcare planning and the priorities for medical resource allocation accordingly.