Performance of Early Warning Scoring Systems Regarding Adverse Events of Unanticipated Clinical Deterioration in Complementary and Alternative Medicine Hospitals

Purpose

This study aims to examine the performance of early warning scoring systems regarding adverse events of unanticipated clinical deterioration in complementary and alternative medicine hospitals.

Methods

A medical record review of 500 patients from 5-year patient data in two traditional Korean medicine hospitals was conducted. Unanticipated clinical deterioration events included unexpected in-hospital mortality, cardiac arrest, and unplanned transfers to acute-care conventional medicine hospitals. Scores of the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), National Early Warning Score (NEWS), and National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) were calculated. Their performance was evaluated by calculating areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for the event occurrence. Multiple logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the factors associated with event occurrence.

Results

The incidence of unanticipated clinical deterioration events was 1.1% (225/21101). The area under the curve of MEWS, NEWS, and NEWS2 was .68, .72, and .72 at 24 hours before the events, respectively. NEWS and NEWS2, with almost the same performance, were superior to MEWS (p = .009). After adjusting for other variables, patients at low-medium risk (OR = 3.28; 95% CI = 1.02–10.55) and those at medium and high risk (OR = 25.03; 95% CI = 2.78–225.46) on NEWS2 scores were more likely to experience unanticipated clinical deterioration than those at low risk. Other factors associated with the event occurrence included frailty risk scores, clinical worry scores, primary medical diagnosis, prescribed medicine administration, acupuncture treatment, and clinical department.

Conclusions

The three early warning scores demonstrated moderate-to-fair performance for clinical deterioration events. NEWS2 can be used for early identification of patients at high risk of deterioration in complementary and alternative medicine hospitals. Additionally, patient, care, and system factors need to be considered to improve patient safety.