日本新冠肺炎日常数据报告滞后分析

Taro Kanatani, Kuninori Nakagawa
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引用次数: 0

摘要

每天公布的新冠病毒阳性病例产生了重大的社会经济影响。在日本,众所周知,这个数字作为时间序列数据的特征是周周期性。我们假设这种周期性是由周末报告时间的变化产生的。我们分析了一个滞后结构,该结构显示了周末发生的拥堵如何影响下周初新确诊病例的数量。我们将这种报告延迟称为周末效应。我们的研究旨在描述在报告阳性病例的时间序列中发现的地理异质性。我们使用各县报告的新阳性病例数量的数据。我们的研究结果表明,延误通常发生在人口超过200万的县,包括日本的三个最大的大都市区,东京,大阪和名古屋。在人口较多的县,新阳性病例数量较高。这就解释了周末效应。
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Analysis of reporting lag in daily data of COVID-19 in Japan.

The daily announcement of positive COVID-19 cases had a major socioeconomic impact. In Japan, it is well known that the characteristic of this number as time series data is the weekly periodicity. We assume that this periodicity is generated by changes in the timing of reporting on the weekend. We analyze a lag structure that shows how congestion that occurs over the weekend affects the number of new confirmed cases at the beginning of the following week. We refer to this reporting delay as the weekend effect. Our study aims to describe the geographical heterogeneity found in the time series of reported positive cases. We use data on the number of new positives reported by the prefectures. Our results suggest that delays generally occur in prefectures with a population of more than 2 million, including Japan's three largest metropolitan areas, Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya. The number of new positives was higher in the more populated prefectures. This will explain the weekend effect.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.30
自引率
11.10%
发文量
30
期刊介绍: Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences (LSRS) publishes high-quality, shorter papers on new theoretical or empirical results and on models and methods in the social sciences that contain a spatial dimension. Coverage includes environmental and resource economics, regional and urban economics, spatial econometrics, regional science, geography, demography, agricultural economics, GIS and city and regional planning. Examples of topics include, but are not limited to, environmental damage, urbanization, resource allocation, spatial-temporal data use, regional economic development and the application of existing and new methodologies.LSRS contributes to the communication of theories and methodologies across disciplinary borders. It offers quick dissemination and easy accessibility of new results. Officially cited as: Lett Spat Resour Sci
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