The levels and trends of diabetes prevalence at national and sub-national levels in Iran (1990 - 2016).

Background: The increasing trends in Diabetes prevalence and its attributed burden emphasized as an important issue that needs serious and urgent attention, all over the word. We estimated the mean Fasting Plasma Glucose (FPG) and the prevalence of Diabetes in aged 25 years or older Iranian adults, by sex, age, province, and year through the time period of 1990 to 2016.

Methods: In order to access the most comprehensive relevant data at the same time the systematic data searched added to the data of 5 national surveys and 7 sub-national population based investigations. Two round of modeling, including the Age-Spatio-Temporal and Gaussian Process Regression were used for estimation of mean FPG trend and uncertainties. To estimate Diabetes estimations in target groups, a crosswalk model was applies to the FPG estimates. The model reiterated separately for women and men. All of estimations standardized based on the Iran national census population of 2016 by year, age groups and sexes at national and sub-national levels.

Results: In 2016, the number of the diabetic population was 4.43 (3.93-4.99) million (2.38 million women). Between 1990 and 2016, the age-standardized mean of FPG increased from 84.69 mg/dl (79.8-89.8) to 100.5 mg/dl (97.9-103.3) in women and from 82.7 mg/dl (78.3-87.5) to 98.8 mg/dl (96.2-101.4) in men. Simultaneously, with considerable difference, the Diabetes prevalence, has increased from 6.1% (4.7-7.8) to 9.8% (8.7-11.1) in women and from 5.0% 18 (3.8-6.3) to 8.1% (7.2-9.2) in men (75% attributed to population growth). Considering the geographical patterns, the greatest increment in the prevalence of Diabetes detected in the northwestern and the central provinces.

Conclusion: Significant increasing trends of Diabetes led to alarming threat, which can make the strategies and goals of our prevention programs out of control. We should plan for more effective communicative interventions for prevention and management of Diabetes, to be designed, implemented and monitored based on the updated scientific evidence.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40200-023-01197-2.