Filippo M Bassi, Miguel Sanchez-Garcia, Rodomiro Ortiz
{"title":"2050 年的植物育种会是什么样子?","authors":"Filippo M Bassi, Miguel Sanchez-Garcia, Rodomiro Ortiz","doi":"10.1002/tpg2.20368","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>At the turn of 2000 many authors envisioned future plant breeding. Twenty years after, which of those authors' visions became reality or not, and which ones may become so in the years to come. After two decades of debates, climate change is a \"certainty,\" food systems shifted from maximizing farm production to reducing environmental impact, and hopes placed into GMOs are mitigated by their low appreciation by consumers. We revise herein how plant breeding may raise or reduce genetic gains based on the breeder's equation. \"Accuracy of Selection\" has significantly improved by many experimental-scale field and laboratory implements, but also by vulgarizing statistical models, and integrating DNA markers into selection. Pre-breeding has really promoted the increase of useful \"Genetic Variance.\" Shortening \"Recycling Time\" has seen great progression, to the point that achieving a denominator equal to \"1\" is becoming a possibility. Maintaining high \"Selection Intensity\" remains the biggest challenge, since adding any technology results in a higher cost per progeny, despite the steady reduction in cost per datapoint. Furthermore, the concepts of variety and seed enterprise might change with the advent of cheaper genomic tools to monitor their use and the promotion of participatory or citizen science. The technological and societal changes influence the new generation of plant breeders, moving them further away from field work, emphasizing instead the use of genomic-based selection methods relying on big data. We envisage what skills plant breeders of tomorrow might need to address challenges, and whether their time in the field may dwindle.</p>","PeriodicalId":49002,"journal":{"name":"Plant Genome","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"What plant breeding may (and may not) look like in 2050?\",\"authors\":\"Filippo M Bassi, Miguel Sanchez-Garcia, Rodomiro Ortiz\",\"doi\":\"10.1002/tpg2.20368\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>At the turn of 2000 many authors envisioned future plant breeding. Twenty years after, which of those authors' visions became reality or not, and which ones may become so in the years to come. After two decades of debates, climate change is a \\\"certainty,\\\" food systems shifted from maximizing farm production to reducing environmental impact, and hopes placed into GMOs are mitigated by their low appreciation by consumers. We revise herein how plant breeding may raise or reduce genetic gains based on the breeder's equation. \\\"Accuracy of Selection\\\" has significantly improved by many experimental-scale field and laboratory implements, but also by vulgarizing statistical models, and integrating DNA markers into selection. Pre-breeding has really promoted the increase of useful \\\"Genetic Variance.\\\" Shortening \\\"Recycling Time\\\" has seen great progression, to the point that achieving a denominator equal to \\\"1\\\" is becoming a possibility. Maintaining high \\\"Selection Intensity\\\" remains the biggest challenge, since adding any technology results in a higher cost per progeny, despite the steady reduction in cost per datapoint. Furthermore, the concepts of variety and seed enterprise might change with the advent of cheaper genomic tools to monitor their use and the promotion of participatory or citizen science. The technological and societal changes influence the new generation of plant breeders, moving them further away from field work, emphasizing instead the use of genomic-based selection methods relying on big data. We envisage what skills plant breeders of tomorrow might need to address challenges, and whether their time in the field may dwindle.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":49002,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Plant Genome\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-03-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Plant Genome\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"99\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1002/tpg2.20368\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"生物学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2023/7/16 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"Epub\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"GENETICS & HEREDITY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Plant Genome","FirstCategoryId":"99","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1002/tpg2.20368","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2023/7/16 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"GENETICS & HEREDITY","Score":null,"Total":0}
What plant breeding may (and may not) look like in 2050?
At the turn of 2000 many authors envisioned future plant breeding. Twenty years after, which of those authors' visions became reality or not, and which ones may become so in the years to come. After two decades of debates, climate change is a "certainty," food systems shifted from maximizing farm production to reducing environmental impact, and hopes placed into GMOs are mitigated by their low appreciation by consumers. We revise herein how plant breeding may raise or reduce genetic gains based on the breeder's equation. "Accuracy of Selection" has significantly improved by many experimental-scale field and laboratory implements, but also by vulgarizing statistical models, and integrating DNA markers into selection. Pre-breeding has really promoted the increase of useful "Genetic Variance." Shortening "Recycling Time" has seen great progression, to the point that achieving a denominator equal to "1" is becoming a possibility. Maintaining high "Selection Intensity" remains the biggest challenge, since adding any technology results in a higher cost per progeny, despite the steady reduction in cost per datapoint. Furthermore, the concepts of variety and seed enterprise might change with the advent of cheaper genomic tools to monitor their use and the promotion of participatory or citizen science. The technological and societal changes influence the new generation of plant breeders, moving them further away from field work, emphasizing instead the use of genomic-based selection methods relying on big data. We envisage what skills plant breeders of tomorrow might need to address challenges, and whether their time in the field may dwindle.
期刊介绍:
The Plant Genome publishes original research investigating all aspects of plant genomics. Technical breakthroughs reporting improvements in the efficiency and speed of acquiring and interpreting plant genomics data are welcome. The editorial board gives preference to novel reports that use innovative genomic applications that advance our understanding of plant biology that may have applications to crop improvement. The journal also publishes invited review articles and perspectives that offer insight and commentary on recent advances in genomics and their potential for agronomic improvement.