US Population Eligibility and Estimated Impact of Semaglutide Treatment on Obesity Prevalence and Cardiovascular Disease Events.

Background: Semaglutide 2.4 mg benefits weight loss and reduction of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in adults with obesity. We estimated the US population eligibility for semaglutide 2.4 mg (based on the weight management indication) and the impact on obesity and CVD events.

Methods: We applied STEP 1 trial eligibility criteria to US adults aged ≥ 18 years in the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2015-2018 to estimate the US eligible population. Semaglutide weight changes in STEP 1 were applied to estimate the population impact on weight changes and obesity prevalence. We also estimated 10-year CVD risks utilizing the BMI-based Framingham CVD risk scores. The difference in estimated risks with and without semaglutide "treatment" multiplied by the eligible NHANES weighted population represented the estimated "preventable" CVD events.

Results: We identified 3999 US adults weighted to an estimated population size of 93.0 million [M] (38% of US adults) who fit STEP 1 eligibility criteria. Applying STEP 1 treatment effects on weight loss resulted in an estimated 69.1% (64.3 M) and 50.5% (47.0 M) showing ≥ 10% and ≥ 15% weight reductions, respectively, translating to a 46.1% (43.0 M) reduction in obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m²) prevalence. Among those without CVD, estimated 10-year CVD risks were 10.15% "before" and 8.34% "after" semaglutide "treatment" reflecting a 1.81% absolute (and 17.8% relative) risk reduction translating to 1.50 million preventable CVD events over 10 years.

Conclusion: Semaglutide treatment in eligible US adults may substantially reduce obesity prevalence and CVD events, which may dramatically impact associated healthcare costs.