The use of advanced technology and statistical methods to predict and prevent suicide

IF 16.8 Q1 PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Nature reviews psychology Pub Date : 2023-04-06 DOI:10.1038/s44159-023-00175-y
Evan M. Kleiman, Catherine R. Glenn, Richard T. Liu
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Abstract

In the past decade, two themes have emerged across suicide research. First, according to meta-analyses, the ability to predict and prevent suicidal thoughts and behaviours is weaker than would be expected for the size of the field. Second, review and commentary papers propose that technological and statistical methods (such as smartphones, wearables, digital phenotyping and machine learning) might become solutions to this problem. In this Review, we aim to strike a balance between the pessimistic picture presented by these meta-analyses and the optimistic picture presented by review and commentary papers about the promise of advanced technological and statistical methods to improve the ability to understand, predict and prevent suicide. We divide our discussion into two broad categories. First, we discuss the research aimed at assessment, with the goal of better understanding or more accurately predicting suicidal thoughts and behaviours. Second, we discuss the literature that focuses on prevention of suicidal thoughts and behaviours. Ecological momentary assessment, wearables and other technological and statistical advances hold great promise for predicting and preventing suicide, but there is much yet to do. Despite decades of research, suicide rates remain largely unchanged. In this Review, Kleiman et al. consider the promise and limitations of technology, such as smartphones, and statistical methods, such as machine learning, to predict and prevent suicide and thereby provide a realistic view of what might be possible.

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利用先进技术和统计方法预测和预防自杀
在过去十年中,自杀研究出现了两个主题。首先,根据荟萃分析,预测和预防自杀想法和行为的能力比预期的领域规模要弱。其次,综述和评论文章提出,技术和统计方法(如智能手机、可穿戴设备、数字表型和机器学习)可能成为这一问题的解决方案。在本综述中,我们希望在这些荟萃分析所呈现的悲观景象与综述和评论文章所呈现的乐观景象之间取得平衡,即先进的技术和统计方法有望提高人们理解、预测和预防自杀的能力。我们将讨论分为两大类。首先,我们讨论以评估为目的的研究,其目标是更好地理解或更准确地预测自杀想法和行为。其次,我们讨论侧重于预防自杀想法和行为的文献。生态瞬间评估、可穿戴设备以及其他技术和统计方面的进步为预测和预防自杀带来了巨大的希望,但仍有许多工作要做。尽管进行了数十年的研究,自杀率在很大程度上仍未发生变化。在这篇评论中,Kleiman 等人考虑了智能手机等技术和机器学习等统计方法在预测和预防自杀方面的前景和局限性,从而对可能实现的目标提出了现实的看法。
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