Risk nomogram for assessing renal recovery in patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma-related renal impairment

Abstract

To determine risk factors affecting renal recovery in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) patients with renal impairment (RI) and establish a risk nomogram. This multi-center, retrospective cohort study included 187 NDMM patients with RI, 127 of whom were admitted to Huashan Hospital and assigned to the training cohort and 60 were admitted to Changzheng Hospital and assigned to the external validation cohort. The baseline data of the 2 cohorts were compared, and survival and renal recovery rates were analyzed. Independent risk factors affecting renal recovery were determined by binary logistic regression analysis, and a risk nomogram was established and subsequently tested in the external validation cohort. Results: The median overall survival (OS) improved in patients who achieved renal recovery etc within 6 courses of MM directed treatment compared with patients without renal recovery. Median time to renal recovery was 2.65 courses, and the cumulative renal recovery rate during the first 3 courses was 75.05%. Involved serum free light chain (sFLC) ratio of >120 at diagnosis, time from renal impairment to treatment > 60 days, and a hematologic response without a very good partial remission (VGPR) or better resulted as independent risk factors for renal recovery during the first 3 courses. The established risk nomogram had good discriminative ability and accuracy. Involved sFLC was a key factor affecting renal recovery. Starting treatment as soon as possible after detecting RI and achieving deep hematologic remission during the first 3 courses of treatment helped achieve renal recovery and improve prognosis.