The Cauchy Process on Phylogenies: A Tractable Model for Pulsed Evolution.

Abstract

Phylogenetic comparative methods use random processes, such as the Brownian Motion, to model the evolution of continuous traits on phylogenetic trees. Growing evidence for non-gradual evolution motivated the development of complex models, often based on Lévy processes. However, their statistical inference is computationally intensive and currently relies on approximations, high-dimensional sampling, or numerical integration. We consider here the Cauchy Process (CP), a particular pure-jump Lévy process in which the trait increment along each branch follows a centered Cauchy distribution with a dispersion proportional to its length. In this work, we derive an exact algorithm to compute both the joint probability density of the tip trait values of a phylogeny under a CP and the ancestral trait values and branch increments posterior densities in quadratic time. A simulation study shows that the CP generates patterns in comparative data that are distinct from any Gaussian process, and that restricted maximum likelihood parameter estimates and root trait reconstruction are unbiased and accurate for trees with 200 tips or less. The CP has only two parameters but is rich enough to capture complex-pulsed evolution. It can reconstruct posterior ancestral trait distributions that are multimodal, reflecting the uncertainty associated with the inference of the evolutionary history of a trait from extant taxa only. Applied on empirical datasets taken from the Evolutionary Ecology and Virology literature, the CP suggests nuanced scenarios for the body size evolution of Greater Antilles Lizards and for the geographical spread of the West Nile Virus epidemics in North America, both consistent with previous studies using more complex models. The method is efficiently implemented in C with an R interface in package cauphy, which is open source and freely available online.