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Phylogenetic paradigm shifts in early amniote evolution 早期羊膜进化中的系统发育范式转变
IF 6.5 1区 生物学 Q1 EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1093/sysbio/syaf087
Kelsey M Jenkins, Dalton L Meyer, Bhart-Anjan S Bhullar
The dichotomy within Amniota (mammals and reptiles) was recognized early in the history of phylogenetic systematics, and with it developed a canonical understanding of the evolutionary relationships of early-diverging clades. In recent years, the relationships of these clades have shifted dramatically among studies, which has profound effects on how researchers interpret evolutionary patterns in early amniotes. To gain a fuller understanding of the early evolution of amniotes, we compiled one of the largest amniote-wide phylogenetic datasets, including 590 fully illustrated characters and 150 taxa representing all the major clades of “pelycosaurian” stem mammals, pan-reptiles, and several outgroups. We analyzed this dataset under Bayesian and Parsimony frameworks, which resulted in different topologies, particularly among stem mammals and near-crown and within-crown Reptilia. To explore the effect sampling has on tree topology, we conducted three series of exclusion experiments, each consisting of ten analyses, each with ten fewer OTUs than the previous, as well as 26 exclusion analyses removing one major clade of early diverging amniote or individual OTU at a time. This experiment showed that taxon sampling has a major effect on early amniote tree topology, and many of the topologies we found bear striking similarities to those reported in recent publications. Furthermore, we identify and discuss several unique effects that taxon exclusion may have on phylogenies. To address poorly resolved (i.e., polytomies) and unstable portions of amniote phylogeny, where branches frequently move or dismantle depending on sampling and choice of analytical technique, we encourage more detailed anatomical work on early amniotes, particularly stem mammals, and expansion of morphological phylogenetic datasets.
羊水动物(哺乳动物和爬行动物)的二分法早在系统发育系统学的历史上就被认识到,并由此发展了对早期分化分支进化关系的规范理解。近年来,这些分支的关系在研究中发生了巨大的变化,这对研究人员如何解释早期羊膜动物的进化模式产生了深远的影响。为了更充分地了解羊膜动物的早期进化,我们编制了最大的羊膜动物系统发育数据集之一,包括590个完整的插图特征和150个分类群,代表了所有主要的“盘古”哺乳动物、泛爬行动物和几个外群。我们在贝叶斯和简约框架下分析了该数据集,得出了不同的拓扑结构,特别是在干哺乳动物和近冠和冠内爬行动物之间。为了探索采样对树拓扑结构的影响,我们进行了三个系列的排除实验,每个系列包括10个分析,每个分析的OTU比前一个少10个,以及26个排除分析,每次删除一个早期分化羊膜的主要分支或单个OTU。该实验表明,类群取样对早期羊膜树的拓扑结构有重要影响,我们发现的许多拓扑结构与最近发表的报道有惊人的相似之处。此外,我们确定并讨论了分类单元排除可能对系统发育产生的几种独特影响。为了解决羊膜系统发育的低分辨率(即多切分)和不稳定部分,其中分支经常移动或拆除取决于采样和分析技术的选择,我们鼓励对早期羊膜,特别是干哺乳动物进行更详细的解剖工作,并扩大形态系统发育数据集。
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引用次数: 0
Global Diversity Patterns are Explained by Diversification Rates and Dispersal at Ancient, Not Shallow, Timescales. 全球多样性模式的解释是多样化率和分散在古代,而不是浅,时间尺度。
IF 5.7 1区 生物学 Q1 EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1093/sysbio/syaf018
Patrick R Stephens, Maxwell J Farrell, T Jonathan Davies, John L Gittleman, Shai Meiri, Matthew O Moreira, Uri Roll, John J Wiens

Explaining global species richness patterns is a major goal of evolution, ecology, and biogeography. These richness patterns are often attributed to spatial variation in diversification rates (speciation minus extinction). Surprisingly, prominent studies of birds, fish, and plants have reported higher speciation and/or diversification rates at higher latitudes, where species richness is lower. We hypothesize that these surprising findings are explained by the focus of those studies on relatively recent macroevolutionary rates, within the last ~20 million years. Here, we analyze global richness patterns among 10,213 squamates (lizards and snakes) and explore their underlying causes. We find that when diversification rates were quantified at more recent timescales, we observed mismatched patterns of rates and richness, similar to previous studies in other taxa. Importantly, diversification rates estimated over longer timescales were instead positively related to geographic richness patterns. These observations may help resolve the paradoxical results of previous studies in other taxa. We found that diversification rates were largely unrelated to climate, even though climate and richness were related. Instead, higher tropical richness was related to the ancient occupation of tropical regions, with colonization time the variable that explained the most variation in richness overall. We suggest that large-scale diversity patterns might be best understood by considering climate, deep-time diversification rates, and the time spent in different regions, rather than recent diversification rates alone.

解释全球物种丰富度格局是进化、生态学和生物地理学的主要目标。这些丰富度格局通常归因于多样化率的空间变化(物种形成减去灭绝)。令人惊讶的是,对鸟类、鱼类和植物的著名研究报告称,在物种丰富度较低的高纬度地区,物种形成和/或多样化率更高。我们假设,这些令人惊讶的发现可以通过这些研究的重点来解释,这些研究集中在相对较近的宏观进化速率上,在过去的~ 2000万年里。本文分析了10213种有鳞动物(蜥蜴和蛇)的全球丰富度格局,并探讨了其根本原因。我们发现,当在最近的时间尺度上量化多样化率时,我们观察到率和丰富度的不匹配模式,类似于之前在其他分类群中的研究。重要的是,在较长时间尺度上估计的多样化率与地理丰富度模式呈正相关。这些观察可能有助于解决先前在其他分类群中研究的矛盾结果。我们发现,尽管气候和丰富度相关,但多样性率在很大程度上与气候无关。相反,较高的热带丰富度与热带地区的古代占领有关,殖民时间是解释丰富度总体变化的最大变量。我们建议通过考虑气候、深度时间多样化率和在不同地区花费的时间,而不是仅仅考虑最近的多样化率,来更好地理解大规模的多样性模式。[气候,定殖时间,多样化率,蜥蜴,纬度多样性梯度,蛇,物种丰富度]。
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引用次数: 0
The Evolutionary History of Dragon Lizards (Squamata: Agamidae) Revealed by Phylogenomics 系统基因组学揭示龙蜥蜴(鳞目:龙蜥蜴科)的进化史
IF 6.5 1区 生物学 Q1 EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1093/sysbio/syaf088
Simon G Scarpetta, Benjamin R Karin, Ammon Corl, Jimmy A McGuire
Dragon lizards (Squamata: Agamidae) are a species-rich, ecologically, and morphologically diverse group that is broadly distributed across the eastern hemisphere. Here, we present a phylogenomic study of this major clade of lizards to elucidate their biogeographic history, understand how dispersal and vicariance generated modern species distributions, and examine whether ecological opportunities encountered during agamid evolutionary history shaped speciation rates. We generated genome-wide sequence data for 42 species representing 40 genera to infer the evolutionary relationships and timescale of dragon lizards. The phylogeny was largely concordant across several different types of genetic loci, but rapidly evolving long exons had better support values across gene and species trees compared to other datasets. We also inferred a supermatrix tree and timetree for 433 (72% of described species) species to perform taxonomically well-sampled biogeographic and macroevolutionary analyses. These analyses inferred that agamids originated during the Late Cretaceous and in Laurasia, and that Southeast Asia has been a major source of agamid diversity. Rate analyses found that neither individual biogeographic and cladogenetic events nor ecological opportunities appear to have resulted in structured variation in speciation rates when considering all agamid lizards. Our study refutes supercontinental vicariance as a driving mechanism for speciation in Agamidae and provides a case of a broadly distributed and diverse clade with weak evidence for variation in speciation rates. [phylogenomics, Agamidae, biogeography, dragon lizards, speciation, divergence times].
龙蜥(鳞目:龙蜥科)是一个物种丰富,生态和形态多样的群体,广泛分布在东半球。在此,我们对这一蜥蜴主要分支进行了系统基因组学研究,以阐明它们的生物地理历史,了解扩散和变异如何产生现代物种分布,并研究在agamid进化史中遇到的生态机会是否影响了物种形成率。利用龙蜥40属42个物种的全基因组序列数据,推测龙蜥的进化关系和时间尺度。系统发育在多个不同类型的遗传位点之间基本一致,但与其他数据集相比,快速进化的长外显子在基因和物种树中具有更好的支持价值。我们还推断了433种(占已描述物种的72%)物种的超矩阵树和时间表,以进行分类采样良好的生物地理和宏观进化分析。这些分析推断,agamamid起源于晚白垩世和Laurasia,东南亚是agamamid多样性的主要来源。比率分析发现,考虑到所有的agamid蜥蜴,无论是个体的生物地理和分支发育事件,还是生态机会,似乎都没有导致物种形成率的结构性变化。我们的研究驳斥了超大陆变异作为Agamidae物种形成的驱动机制,并提供了一个广泛分布和多样化的分支的例子,但物种形成率的变化证据不足。[系统基因组学,龙龙科,生物地理学,龙蜥蜴,物种形成,分化时间]。
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引用次数: 0
An Evolving View of Lineage Diversification 谱系多样化的演化观点
IF 6.5 1区 生物学 Q1 EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1093/sysbio/syaf086
Pascal O Title, L Francisco Henao-Díaz, Rosana Zenil-Ferguson, Thais Vasconcelos
Systematists have long been fascinated by the astounding variation in species diversity across the various branches of the tree of life, a net result of the uneven rates at which lineages undergo speciation and extinction over time. The past 30 years have seen the development and widespread application of tools that allow diversification to be quantified and characterized in empirical datasets. These advances have, in turn, enabled the statistical evaluation of hypotheses about the causes behind the uneven distribution of species richness among lineages, leading to a more nuanced understanding of diversification rate variation, as reflected in an ever-expanding literature. Here, we provide a brief review of the current understanding of these models, the types of questions they address, and some of their collective limitations, with a focus on tree-based analyses of reconstructed phylogenies. Based on this overview, we outline future considerations in the lineage diversification research program, including the potential for machine learning to revolutionize the field by making model selection and parameter estimation more efficient in highly complex models. We interpret the recent slowdown in publication pace as a sign of a maturing field, where systematists are taking a step back after becoming better equipped to understand the technicalities and current limitations of these methods, leading to more careful applications and a greater embrace of uncertainty.
系统学家长期以来一直着迷于生命之树不同分支中物种多样性的惊人变化,这是谱系随着时间的推移经历物种形成和灭绝的不均匀速率的净结果。在过去的30年里,各种工具的发展和广泛应用使多样化能够在经验数据集中量化和表征。反过来,这些进步使得对物种丰富度在谱系之间分布不均匀背后的原因的假设进行统计评估成为可能,导致对多样化率变化的更细致的理解,正如不断扩大的文献所反映的那样。在这里,我们简要回顾了目前对这些模型的理解,它们解决的问题类型,以及它们的一些共同局限性,重点是基于树的重建系统发育分析。基于这一概述,我们概述了谱系多样化研究计划的未来考虑因素,包括机器学习通过在高度复杂的模型中更有效地进行模型选择和参数估计来彻底改变该领域的潜力。我们将最近出版速度的放缓解释为一个成熟领域的标志,系统学家在更好地理解这些方法的技术细节和当前局限性之后,正在后退一步,导致更谨慎的应用和更大的不确定性。
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引用次数: 0
Population Size Differences Can Lead to Biases in Phylogenetic Inference and Introgression Detection in the Presence of Purifying Selection. 群体大小差异可能导致在净化选择存在下的系统发育推断和渐渗检测的偏差。
IF 6.5 1区 生物学 Q1 EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-12-03 DOI: 10.1093/sysbio/syaf085
Chong He,Meng-Yun Chen,Hao Zhu
Assumptions about the probability distribution of gene tree topologies provides a basis for phylogenetic reconstruction and introgression detection. Initial evidence has suggested that in the presence of purifying selection, population size differences can affect the probability distribution of gene tree topologies. Nevertheless, the impact of this phenomenon on phylogenetic reconstruction and introgression detection remains to be explored. Additionally, a theoretical understanding of this phenomenon remains absent. Here, using the population genetic simulation software SLiM, we provide evidence that in the presence of purifying selection, population size differences can cause biases in phylogenetic inference. We also provide evidence that in the presence of purifying selection, population size differences can cause statistics used for introgression detection to exhibit patterns resembling those caused by introgression. Additionally, we present a theoretical analysis showing that using a random gene tree labeling process to model the gene tree formation process in the occurrence of deep coalescence lacks a biological basis under purifying selection, and gene tree distributions under purifying selection are expected to exhibit population size dependence. This work underscores the importance of considering the potential confounding impact of purifying selection on phylogenetic inference and introgression detection.
基因树拓扑的概率分布假设为系统发育重建和基因渗入检测提供了基础。初步证据表明,在净化选择的存在下,种群大小的差异会影响基因树拓扑结构的概率分布。然而,这种现象对系统发育重建和基因渗入检测的影响仍有待探讨。此外,对这一现象的理论理解仍然缺乏。在这里,我们使用群体遗传模拟软件SLiM,提供证据表明,在净化选择的存在下,群体大小差异会导致系统发育推断的偏差。我们还提供证据表明,在存在净化选择的情况下,种群大小差异可以导致用于渗入检测的统计数据显示出与渗入引起的统计数据相似的模式。此外,我们提出的理论分析表明,在纯化选择下,使用随机基因树标记过程来模拟基因树形成过程缺乏生物学基础,纯化选择下的基因树分布预计会表现出群体大小依赖性。这项工作强调了考虑纯化选择对系统发育推断和渗入检测的潜在混淆影响的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Correction to: Considering Decoupled Phenotypic Diversification Between Ontogenetic Phases in Macroevolution: An Example Using Triggerfishes (Balistidae). 修正:考虑宏观进化中个体发生阶段之间的解耦表型多样化:以触发鱼(Balistidae)为例。
IF 5.7 1区 生物学 Q1 EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-11-26 DOI: 10.1093/sysbio/syaf046
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引用次数: 0
Bioinformatics of Combined Nuclear and Mitochondrial Phylogenomics to Define Key Nodes for the Classification of Coleoptera. 结合核与线粒体系统基因组学定义鞘翅目分类关键节点的生物信息学研究。
IF 5.7 1区 生物学 Q1 EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1093/sysbio/syaf031
Thomas J Creedy, Yinhuan Ding, Katherine M Gregory, Luke Swaby, Feng Zhang, Alfried P Vogler

Nuclear genome sequencing for phylogenetics is resource-intensive while mitochondrial genomes can be sequenced and analyzed with relative ease for building densely sampled phylogenetic trees of the most species-rich lineages of animals. Here, we develop a conceptual approach and bioinformatics workflow for combining nuclear single-copy orthologs with less informative but densely sampled mitochondrial genomes, for a detailed tree of Coleoptera (beetles). Basal relationships of Coleoptera were first inferred from > 2,000 BUSCO loci mined from GenBank's Short Read Archive for 119 exemplars of all major lineages under various substitution models and levels of matrix completion, to reveal universally supported nodes. Second, the corresponding mitogenomes were extracted and combined with an additional 373 species selected for broad taxonomic and biogeographic coverage, roughly in proportion to the known global species diversity of Coleoptera. Bioinformatic processing of mitogenomes was conducted with a novel pipeline for rapid, accurate annotation of protein-coding genes. Finally, phylogenetic trees from all 491 mitogenomes were generated under a backbone constraint from the universal basal nodes, which produced a well-supported tree of the major lineages at the family and superfamily level. Being genetically unlinked and showing unique character variation, mitogenomes provide a unique perspective of the phylogeny. Comparison with 3 recent nuclear phylogenomic studies resulted in the recognition of > 80 nodes universally present across all analyses. These may now support the higher classification of Coleoptera and serve as backbone of further studies, as numerous full mitogenomes and mitochondrial DNA barcodes are added to an increasingly complete phylogenetic tree of this super-diverse insect order.

用于系统发育的核基因组测序是资源密集型的,而线粒体基因组的测序和分析相对容易,可以为大多数物种丰富的动物谱系建立密集采样的系统发育树。在这里,我们开发了一种概念性方法和生物信息学工作流程,将核单拷贝同源物与信息较少但采样密集的线粒体基因组相结合,用于详细的鞘翅目(甲虫)树。首先从GenBank的Short Read Archive中挖掘的所有主要谱系的119个样本在各种替代模型和矩阵完成水平下的bbb2000个BUSCO位点中推断出鞘翅类的基础关系,以揭示普遍支持的节点。其次,提取相应的有丝分裂基因组,并与另外373个物种进行组合,这些物种具有广泛的分类和生物地理覆盖范围,大致与已知的鞘翅目全球物种多样性成比例。有丝分裂基因组的生物信息学处理是通过一种新的管道来快速,准确地注释蛋白质编码基因。最后,从所有491个有丝分裂基因组中,在普遍基础节点的主干约束下生成了系统发育树,这产生了一个在家族和超家族水平上的主要谱系的良好支持树。有丝分裂基因组具有遗传上的非连锁和独特的特征变异,为研究系统发育提供了独特的视角。与最近的3个核系统基因组研究比较,发现bbbb80节点普遍存在于所有分析中。随着大量完整的有丝分裂基因组和线粒体DNA条形码被添加到这一超级多样化昆虫目的日益完整的系统发育树中,这些发现可能支持鞘翅目的更高分类,并作为进一步研究的支柱。
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引用次数: 0
Genomic and phenotypic delimitation of species in a temperate aquatic biodiversity hotspot 温带水生生物多样性热点地区物种的基因组和表型划界
IF 6.5 1区 生物学 Q1 EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-11-24 DOI: 10.1093/sysbio/syaf083
Daniel J MacGuigan, Adam Taylor, Ava Ghezelayagh, Julia E Wood, Jeffrey W Simmons, Jon M Mollish, Thomas J Near
Biologists have relied on morphological characteristics to identify, define, and formally describe species for the past 250 years. The advent of phylogenetic species concepts and the introduction of molecular data have spawned new species delimitation methods applicable to a wide range of eukaryotic lineages. However, these approaches heavily emphasize genomic data, often overlooking phenotypic traits. We present and implement a species delimitation approach that utilizes genome-wide markers from ddRAD-seq and meristic morphological traits, which have long been used to identify and delineate fish species. Our methodology employs unsupervised machine learning to analyze morphological data without a priori species assignments, allowing phenotypic patterns to emerge independently from genomic-based species delimitation. We apply our combined genomic and phenotypic methodology to the freshwater systems of Southeastern North America, a biodiversity hotspot where conservation efforts are hampered by an incomplete knowledge of species diversity. Our investigation focuses on the darter clade Allohistium, a threatened lineage comprising two described species. Through phylogenomic, population genetic, and phenotypic model comparisons, we provide evidence supporting the delimitation of a third species of Allohistium, which we formally describe. Our approach shows how unsupervised machine learning can reveal cryptic morphological diversity that might otherwise be obscured by taxonomic preconceptions. This study demonstrates that model testing using diverse lines of evidence yields a more comprehensive, data-driven hypothesis of species diversity.
在过去的250年里,生物学家一直依靠形态特征来识别、定义和正式描述物种。系统发育物种概念的出现和分子数据的引入催生了新的物种划分方法,适用于广泛的真核生物谱系。然而,这些方法过分强调基因组数据,往往忽略了表型特征。我们提出并实施了一种物种划分方法,该方法利用来自ddRAD-seq的全基因组标记和分生形态学特征,这些标记长期以来一直用于鉴定和描绘鱼类。我们的方法采用无监督机器学习来分析形态数据,而无需先验的物种分配,允许表型模式独立于基于基因组的物种划分而出现。我们将基因组学和表型学相结合的方法应用于北美东南部的淡水系统,这是一个生物多样性热点,由于物种多样性的不完整知识,保护工作受到阻碍。我们的调查集中在镖枝Allohistium,一个受威胁的谱系包括两个描述的物种。通过系统基因组学、种群遗传学和表型模型比较,我们提供了支持第三种异源组菌的划界的证据,我们正式描述了这一物种。我们的方法展示了无监督机器学习如何揭示潜在的形态多样性,否则这些多样性可能会被分类学的先入之见所掩盖。这项研究表明,使用不同证据线的模型测试产生了一个更全面的、数据驱动的物种多样性假设。
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引用次数: 0
Dating the Bacterial Tree of Life Based on Ancient Symbiosis. 根据古代共生关系确定细菌生命树的年代。
IF 5.7 1区 生物学 Q1 EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-11-22 DOI: 10.1093/sysbio/syae071
Sishuo Wang, Haiwei Luo

Obtaining a timescale for bacterial evolution is crucial to understand early life evolution but is difficult owing to the scarcity of bacterial fossils. Here, we introduce multiple new time constraints to calibrate bacterial evolution based on ancient symbiosis. This idea is implemented using a bacterial tree constructed with genes found in the mitochondrial lineages phylogenetically embedded within Proteobacteria. The expanded mitochondria-bacterial tree allows the node age constraints of eukaryotes established by their abundant fossils to be propagated to ancient co-evolving bacterial symbionts and across the bacterial tree of life. Importantly, we formulate a new probabilistic framework that considers uncertainty in inference of the ancestral lifestyle of modern symbionts to apply 19 relative time constraints each informed by host-symbiont association to constrain bacterial symbionts no older than their eukaryotic host. Moreover, we develop an approach to incorporating substitution mixture models that better accommodate substitutional saturation and compositional heterogeneity for dating deep phylogenies. Our analysis estimates that the last bacterial common ancestor occurred approximately 4.0-3.5 billion years ago (Ga), followed by rapid divergence of major bacterial clades. It is generally robust to alternative root ages, root positions, tree topologies, fossil ages, ancestral lifestyle reconstruction, gene sets, among other factors. The obtained timetree serves as a foundation for testing hypotheses regarding bacterial diversification and its correlation with geobiological events across different timescales.

获得细菌进化的时间尺度对于理解早期生命进化至关重要,但由于细菌化石的稀缺性,这是困难的。在这里,我们引入了多个新的时间约束来校准基于古代共生的细菌进化。这个想法是通过一个细菌树来实现的,这个细菌树是由在变形杆菌中嵌入的线粒体谱系中发现的基因构建的。扩大的线粒体-细菌树允许真核生物通过丰富的化石建立的节点年龄限制传播到古老的共同进化的细菌共生体和整个细菌生命树。重要的是,我们制定了一个新的概率框架,该框架考虑了现代共生体祖先生活方式推断的不确定性,并应用19个相对时间约束(RTC),每个RTC都由宿主-共生体关联通知,以约束不超过其真核宿主的细菌共生体。此外,我们开发了一种结合替代混合物模型的方法,该模型可以更好地适应取代饱和度和成分异质性,以确定深层系统发育的年代。我们的分析估计,最后的细菌共同祖先(LBCA)大约发生在40 - 35亿年前(Ga),随后是主要细菌分支的快速分化。它对不同的根年龄、根位置、树的拓扑结构、化石年龄、祖先生活方式重建、基因集等因素都具有普遍的鲁棒性。获得的时间表可作为检验关于细菌多样化及其与不同时间尺度的地质生物学事件的相关性的假设的基础。
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引用次数: 0
Link between the Birth-Death Process and the Kingman Coalescent-Applications to Phylogenetic Epidemiology. 生-死过程与金曼凝聚之间的联系——在系统发育流行病学中的应用。
IF 5.7 1区 生物学 Q1 EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-11-22 DOI: 10.1093/sysbio/syaf024
Josselin Cornuault, Fabio Pardi, Celine Scornavacca

The two most popular tree models used in phylogenetics are the birth-death process (BD) and the Kingman coalescent (KC). These two models differ in several respects, notably: (i) the curve of the population size through time is a stochastic process in the BD, versus a parametrized curve in the KC, (ii) the BD makes assumptions about the way samples are collected, while the KC conditions on the number of samples and the collection times, thus bypassing the need to describe the sampling procedure. These two models have been applied to different contexts: the BD in macroevolutionary studies of clades of species, and the KC for populations. The exception is the field of phylogenetic epidemiology which uses both models. This then asks the question of how such different models can be used in the same context. In this paper, we study large-population limits of the BD, in a search for a mathematical link between the BD and the KC. We show that the KC is the large-population limit of a BD conditioned on a given population trajectory, and we provide the formula for the parameter θ of the limiting KC. This formula appears in earlier studies, but the present article is the first to show formally how the correspondence arises as a large-population limit, and that the BD needs to be conditioned for the KC to arise. Besides these fundamentally mathematical results, we demonstrate how our findings can be used practically in phylogenetic inference. In particular, we propose a new method for phylogenetic epidemiology, called CalicoBird, ensuing from our results. We conjecture that this new method, used in conjunction with auxiliary data (e.g. prevalence or incidence data), should allow estimating important epidemiological parameters (e.g. the prevalence and the effective reproduction number), in a way that is robust to the data-generating model and the sampling procedure. Future studies will be needed to put our claims to the test.

在系统发育学中使用的两种最流行的树模型是出生-死亡过程(BD)和金曼聚结(KC)。这两个模型在几个方面有所不同,值得注意的是:(i)总体规模随时间的曲线在BD中是一个随机过程,而在KC中是一个参数化曲线,(ii) BD对样本的收集方式进行假设,而KC则对样本数量和收集时间进行限制,因此无需描述采样过程。这两种模型已被应用于不同的环境:BD用于物种枝的宏观进化研究,KC用于种群研究。唯一的例外是系统发育流行病学领域,它使用了这两种模型。这就提出了这样一个问题,即如何在相同的上下文中使用这些不同的模型。在本文中,我们研究BD的庞大的人口限制,在寻找一个数学BD和KC。我们之间的联系表明,KC的庞大的人口限制人口BD条件在给定轨迹,和我们提供的公式参数θ的限制KC。这个公式出现在早期的研究,但是本文首次显示正式信件时如何作为一个庞大的人口限制,BD需要为KC的出现提供条件。除了这些基本的数学结果外,我们还展示了我们的发现如何在系统发育推断中实际使用。特别地,根据我们的研究结果,我们提出了一种新的系统发育流行病学方法calicbird。我们推测,这种新方法与辅助数据(如患病率或发病率数据)结合使用,应该能够以一种对数据生成模型和抽样程序具有鲁棒性的方式估计重要的流行病学参数(如患病率和有效繁殖数)。还需要进一步的研究来验证我们的说法。
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