Use of the CHA2DS2-VASc score to predict subsequent myocardial infarction in atrial fibrillation

Abstract

Background

The risk of subsequent myocardial infarction (MI) varies widely in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). No convenient scoring system currently exists to identify MI in AF. While each element of the CHA2DS2-VASc (congestive heart failure; hypertension; age ≥75 years [doubled]; type 2 diabetes; previous stroke or thromboembolism [doubled]; vascular disease; age 65–75 years; and sex category) score can increase the likelihood of MI, this retrospective longitudinal study aimed to determine the accuracy of the CHA2DS2-VASc score in predicting subsequent MI risk in AF.

Methods

A total of 29,341 patients with AF were enrolled and followed up from January 2010 until the first occurrence of MI or until December 2020. The primary endpoint was the occurrence of subsequent MI.

Results

The average age of the study population was 71 years, and 43.2% were male. The mean CHA2DS2-VASc score was found to be higher in patients with AF who had experienced an MI than in those who had not (3.56 ± 1.92 vs. 3.32 ± 1.81, p < 0.001). During the long-term follow-up, the risk of subsequent MI increased by 22% with every one-point increase in the CHA2DS2-VASc score (hazard ratio 1.22, 95% confidence interval 1.19–1.25; p < 0.001). Kaplan–Meier analysis revealed that high CHA2DS2-VASc scores were more likely to experience an MI than those with low CHA2DS2-VASc scores (log-rank p < 0.001). Furthermore, the CHA2DS2-VASc score was a significant predictor of MI in multivariate regression analysis.

Conclusion

The CHA₂DS₂-VASc score is a valuable predictor of subsequent MI risk in patients with AF.