Estimating the Effects of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions and Population Mobility on Daily COVID-19 Cases: Evidence from Ontario.

IF 1.7 3区社会学 Q2 ECONOMICS Canadian Public Policy-Analyse De Politiques Pub Date : 2022-03-01 DOI:10.3138/cpp.2021-022

Nathaniel T Stevens, Anindya Sen, Francis Kiwon, Plinio P Morita, Stefan H Steiner, Qihuang Zhang

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Abstract

This study uses coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case counts and Google mobility data for 12 of Ontario's largest Public Health Units from Spring 2020 until the end of January 2021 to evaluate the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs; policy restrictions on business operations and social gatherings) and population mobility on daily cases. Instrumental variables (IV) estimation is used to account for potential simultaneity bias, because both daily COVID-19 cases and NPIs are dependent on lagged case numbers. IV estimates based on differences in lag lengths to infer causal estimates imply that the implementation of stricter NPIs and indoor mask mandates are associated with reductions in COVID-19 cases. Moreover, estimates based on Google mobility data suggest that increases in workplace attendance are correlated with higher case counts. Finally, from October 2020 to January 2021, daily Ontario forecasts from Box-Jenkins time-series models are more accurate than official forecasts and forecasts from a susceptible-infected-removed epidemiology model.

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估算非药物干预措施和人口流动对每日 COVID-19 病例的影响：安大略省的证据。

本研究使用安大略省 12 个最大公共卫生单位从 2020 年春季到 2021 年 1 月底的 2019 年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）病例数和谷歌流动性数据，评估非药物干预措施（NPIs；对商业运营和社交聚会的政策限制）和人口流动性对每日病例数的影响。由于每日 COVID-19 病例和 NPI 都取决于滞后的病例数，因此使用工具变量 (IV) 估计法来考虑潜在的同时性偏差。基于滞后长度差异的因果估计值推断出的 IV 估计值表明，实施更严格的 NPI 和室内口罩规定与 COVID-19 病例的减少有关。此外，基于谷歌流动性数据的估计表明，工作场所出勤率的增加与病例数的增加相关。最后，从 2020 年 10 月到 2021 年 1 月，Box-Jenkins 时间序列模型得出的安大略省每日预测值比官方预测值和易感-感染-移出流行病学模型得出的预测值更准确。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Canadian Public Policy-Analyse De Politiques Multiple-

CiteScore

6.00

自引率

12.90%

发文量

期刊介绍： Canadian Public Policy is Canada"s foremost journal examining economic and social policy. The aim of the journal is to stimulate research and discussion of public policy problems in Canada. It is directed at a wide readership including decision makers and advisers in business organizations and governments, and policy researchers in private institutions and universities. Because of the interdisciplinary nature of many public policy issues, the contents of each volume aim to be representative of various disciplines involved in public policy issues. This quarterly journal publishes interdisciplinary articles in English or French. Abstracts are provided in both languages.