Emerging distress in the US real estate market? Dangers in the current market and tools to mitigate risk

A. Floyd Lattin, Amachie K. Ackah
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Abstract

Despite the recent downturn in the US economy, real estate has remained an extremely attractive investment class. Although the market has softened, property investors have, to date, been largely insulated from distress. Commercial real estate provides investors with cash flow; a hedge against price instability; low correlation to other asset classes; and low volatility of returns. While of these characteristics provide investors potential refuge, they need to be managed, particularly in difficult economic times. Credit risk, leverage risk, geographic market risk, and exit risk are all important elements. Although the US real estate industry, for once, has not been a cause of the recession, understanding and managing these risks is important for the commercial property market to escape the effects of the current downturn. These facts have placed stress on the property market and forced new roles on all participants in the capital structure of real estate investments. This paper will outline various dangers in the current real estate market as well as highlight tools that the industry can use that may mitigate these risks. The paper will also attempt to quantify today's property market dynamics in an effort to plot the current phase of the cycle. Copyright © 2002 Henry Stewart Publications.

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美国房地产市场正在出现困境?当前市场的危险和降低风险的工具
尽管最近美国经济低迷,房地产仍然是一个极具吸引力的投资类别。尽管市场已经走软,但迄今为止,房地产投资者基本上没有受到危机的影响。商业地产为投资者提供现金流;对冲:对价格不稳定的对冲;与其他资产类别相关性较低;低波动性的回报。虽然这些特征为投资者提供了潜在的庇护,但它们需要加以管理,尤其是在经济困难时期。信用风险、杠杆风险、地域市场风险和退出风险都是重要的因素。尽管美国房地产业这一次没有成为经济衰退的原因,但理解和管理这些风险对于商业房地产市场摆脱当前低迷的影响至关重要。这些事实给房地产市场带来了压力,并迫使房地产投资资本结构中的所有参与者都必须扮演新的角色。本文将概述当前房地产市场的各种危险,并强调该行业可以使用的工具,以减轻这些风险。本文还将尝试量化今天的房地产市场动态,以绘制当前周期阶段的图。版权所有©2002 Henry Stewart Publications。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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