Modeling and migration-based control of depopulation

IF 1.2 4区生物学 Q4 ECOLOGY Theoretical Population Biology Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI:10.1016/j.tpb.2022.11.002

Lőrinc Márton

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Abstract

This study deals with the problem of the population shrinking in habitats affected by aging and excessive migration outflows. First, a control-oriented population dynamics model was proposed that catches the effect of depopulation. The model also includes the effect of spatial interaction-driven migration flows on population size. The resulting model is a non-homogeneous ordinary differential equation. It includes such phenomena that are important from the control point of view, such as the influence of migration costs on population dynamics, the impact of aging on population size, or the effect of the habitats’ carrying capacity on migration flows. Based on the model, controllability conditions are formulated and a control strategy was developed that is meant to avoid the depopulation of the habitat. The control method acts on the migration costs to achieve the control goal and requires only population size measurements. Simulation measurements are presented in the paper to show the effectiveness of the proposed modeling and control methods.

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人口减少的建模和基于迁移的控制

本文研究了受人口老龄化和人口外流影响的栖息地的人口萎缩问题。首先，提出了一个控制导向的种群动态模型，该模型考虑了种群减少的影响。该模型还包括空间相互作用驱动的迁移流动对人口规模的影响。所得模型是一个非齐次常微分方程。它包括从控制角度来看重要的现象，如迁移成本对人口动态的影响，老龄化对人口规模的影响，或栖息地承载能力对迁移流动的影响。在此基础上，提出了控制条件，并制定了防止栖息地种群减少的控制策略。该控制方法只需要测量种群规模，就可以通过迁移成本来实现控制目标。仿真实验证明了所提出的建模和控制方法的有效性。

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来源期刊

Theoretical Population Biology 生物-进化生物学

CiteScore

2.50

自引率

14.30%

发文量

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： An interdisciplinary journal, Theoretical Population Biology presents articles on theoretical aspects of the biology of populations, particularly in the areas of demography, ecology, epidemiology, evolution, and genetics. Emphasis is on the development of mathematical theory and models that enhance the understanding of biological phenomena. Articles highlight the motivation and significance of the work for advancing progress in biology, relying on a substantial mathematical effort to obtain biological insight. The journal also presents empirical results and computational and statistical methods directly impinging on theoretical problems in population biology.