{"title":"Using Intentions to Predict Fertility.","authors":"Johannes Norling","doi":"10.1017/dem.2020.32","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>On average, childless women observed by the Panel Study of Income Dynamics report that they intend to have more children than they actual have. A collection of intentions that record only whether respondents intend to have another child can more accurately predict the number of children they have. Errors in the formation of intentions are not required to explain this finding. Rather, if intentions record a survey respondent's most likely predicted number of children, then the average of these intentions does not necessarily equal average actual fertility, even if intentions are formed using rational expectations.</p>","PeriodicalId":43286,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Demographic Economics","volume":"88 3","pages":"257-282"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3000,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9432464/pdf/nihms-1718578.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Demographic Economics","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1017/dem.2020.32","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2021/3/1 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"DEMOGRAPHY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
On average, childless women observed by the Panel Study of Income Dynamics report that they intend to have more children than they actual have. A collection of intentions that record only whether respondents intend to have another child can more accurately predict the number of children they have. Errors in the formation of intentions are not required to explain this finding. Rather, if intentions record a survey respondent's most likely predicted number of children, then the average of these intentions does not necessarily equal average actual fertility, even if intentions are formed using rational expectations.
平均而言，收入动态面板研究（Panel Study of Income Dynamics）观察到的无子女妇女表示，她们打算生育的子女数比实际生育的子女数要多。只记录受访者是否打算再要一个孩子的意向收集可以更准确地预测她们的孩子数量。要解释这一发现，并不需要在形成意向时出现错误。相反，如果意向记录了调查对象最可能预测的子女数量，那么这些意向的平均值并不一定等于平均实际生育率，即使意向是通过理性预期形成的。
期刊介绍：
Demographic variables such as fertility, mortality, migration and family structures notably respond to economic incentives and in turn affect the economic development of societies. Journal of Demographic Economics welcomes both empirical and theoretical papers on issues relevant to Demographic Economics with a preference for combining abstract economic or demographic models together with data to highlight major mechanisms. The journal was first published in 1929 as Bulletin de l’Institut des Sciences Economiques. It later became known as Louvain Economic Review, and continued till 2014 to publish under this title. In 2015, it moved to Cambridge University Press, increased its international character and changed its focus exclusively to demographic economics.
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