Journal of Demographic Economics最新文献

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Selecting only the best and brightest? An assessment of migration policy selectivity and its effectiveness 只选择最优秀和最聪明的人？对移民政策选择性及其有效性的评估

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 DEMOGRAPHY

Journal of Demographic Economics

Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1017/dem.2024.9

Glenn Rayp, Ilse Ruyssen, Samuel Standaert

This paper introduces a new set of comprehensive and cross-country-comparable indexes of migration policy selectivity. Crucially, these reflect the multidimensional nature of the differential treatment of migrants. We use these indexes to study the evolution of migration policy selectivity and estimate how they affect migration flows. Combining all publicly available and relevant data since WWII, we build three composite indexes that identify selectivity in terms of skills, economic resources and nationality. First, we use these to characterize migration policies in 42 countries between 1990 and 2014. Second, we examine the relationship between the selectivity of migration policy and migration flows. Each of the three dimensions of migration policy is found to correlate strongly and significantly with both the size and structure of migration flows.

本文介绍了一套新的综合性跨国可比移民政策选择性指数。最重要的是，这些指数反映了移民差别待遇的多维性。我们利用这些指数来研究移民政策选择性的演变，并估计它们如何影响移民流。综合二战以来所有可公开获得的相关数据，我们建立了三个综合指数，分别从技能、经济资源和国籍方面来识别选择性。首先，我们利用这些指数来描述 1990 年至 2014 年间 42 个国家的移民政策。其次，我们研究了移民政策的选择性与移民流之间的关系。我们发现，移民政策的三个维度中的每一个都与移民流的规模和结构密切相关。

引用次数: 0

Child growth and refugee status: evidence from Syrian migrants in Turkey 儿童成长与难民身份：土耳其境内叙利亚移民的证据

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 DEMOGRAPHY

Journal of Demographic Economics

Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1017/dem.2024.12

Murat Demirci, Andrew D. Foster, Murat G. Kırdar

This study examines disparities in health and nutrition among native and Syrian refugee children in Turkey. To understand the need for targeted programs addressing child well-being among the refugee population, we analyze the Turkey Demographic and Health Survey (TDHS) – which provides representative data for a large refugee and native population. We find no evidence of a difference in infant or child mortality between refugee children born in Turkey and native children. However, refugee infants born in Turkey have lower birthweight and age-adjusted weight and height than native infants. When we account for a rich set of birth and socioeconomic characteristics that display substantial differences between natives and refugees, the gaps in birthweight and age-adjusted height persist, but the gap in age-adjusted weight disappears. Moreover, the remaining gaps in birthweight and anthropometric outcomes are limited to the lower end of the distribution. The observed gaps are even larger for refugee infants born before migrating to Turkey, suggesting that the remaining deficits reflect conditions in the source country before migration rather than deficits in access to health services within Turkey. Finally, comparing children by the country of their first trimester, we find evidence of the detrimental effects of stress exposure during pregnancy.

本研究探讨了土耳其本地儿童和叙利亚难民儿童在健康和营养方面的差异。为了解针对难民儿童福利的针对性计划的必要性，我们分析了土耳其人口与健康调查（TDHS）--该调查提供了大量难民和本地人口的代表性数据。我们发现，没有证据表明在土耳其出生的难民儿童与本地儿童在婴儿或儿童死亡率方面存在差异。然而，在土耳其出生的难民婴儿的出生体重、年龄调整后的体重和身高均低于本地婴儿。当我们考虑到本地人和难民之间存在巨大差异的一系列丰富的出生和社会经济特征时，出生体重和年龄调整后身高的差距依然存在，但年龄调整后体重的差距却消失了。此外，出生体重和人体测量结果的其余差距仅限于分布的低端。对于移民到土耳其之前出生的难民婴儿来说，观察到的差距甚至更大，这表明剩余的差距反映的是移民前来源国的状况，而不是在土耳其获得医疗服务方面的差距。最后，通过比较儿童怀孕头三个月所在国家的情况，我们发现有证据表明，怀孕期间受到的压力会产生不利影响。

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引用次数: 0

Demographic change, secular stagnation, and inequality: automation as a blessing? 人口变化、世俗停滞和不平等：自动化是福气？

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 DEMOGRAPHY

Journal of Demographic Economics

Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1017/dem.2024.10

Arthur Jacobs, Freddy Heylen

We study whether the increased adoption of available automation technologies allows economies to avoid the negative effect of aging on per capita output. We develop a quantitative theory in which firms choose to which extent they automate in response to a declining workforce and rising old-age dependency. An important element in our model is the integration of two capital types: automation capital that acts as a substitute to human labor, and traditional capital that is a complement to labor. Empirically, our model's predictions largely match data regarding automation (robotization) density across OECD countries. Simulating the model, we find that aging-induced automation only partially compensates the negative growth effect of aging in the absence of technical progress in automation technology. One reason is that automated tasks are no perfect substitutes for non-automated tasks. A second reason is that automation raises the interest rate and thus inhibits positive behavioral reactions to aging (later retirement and investment in human capital). Moreover, increased automation generates a falling net labor share of income and rising welfare inequality. We evaluate alternative policy responses to cope with this inequality.

我们研究了更多采用现有自动化技术是否能使经济体避免老龄化对人均产出的负面影响。我们建立了一个定量理论，在这个理论中，企业会选择在多大程度上实现自动化，以应对劳动力减少和老年抚养率上升的问题。我们模型中的一个重要元素是两种资本类型的整合：作为人力替代品的自动化资本和作为劳动力补充的传统资本。从经验来看，我们模型的预测与经合组织国家的自动化（机器人化）密度数据基本吻合。通过模拟模型，我们发现，在自动化技术没有进步的情况下，老龄化引起的自动化只能部分弥补老龄化对经济增长的负面影响。原因之一是自动化任务无法完全替代非自动化任务。第二个原因是自动化提高了利率，从而抑制了对老龄化的积极行为反应（延迟退休和人力资本投资）。此外，自动化程度的提高会导致净劳动收入份额的下降和福利不平等的加剧。我们评估了应对这种不平等的其他政策措施。

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引用次数: 0

A poisoned gift? The hireability signals of an income-support program for the senior unemployed 一份有毒的礼物？高龄失业者收入支持计划的可雇用性信号

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 DEMOGRAPHY

Journal of Demographic Economics

Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1017/dem.2024.11

Axana Dalle, Philippe Sterkens, Stijn Baert

Many Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries invest heavily in labor-market programs to prolong careers. Although active labor-market programs have frequently been evaluated, less is known about passive programs supporting unemployed seniors financially. We focus on the latter by investigating the hiring opportunities of candidates who partake in a regime that ensures dismissed seniors a company supplement alongside regular unemployment benefits. Therefore, we conduct a scenario experiment in which genuine recruiters evaluate fictitious candidates who have spent varying durations unemployed in regimes with and without the company supplement. Because recruiters evaluate candidates' hireability and productivity perceptions, we can identify underlying mechanisms. Overall, we find no evidence of employer-side stigma hindering the re-employment of seniors unemployed in the program. Conversely, longer-term unemployed even benefit from this regime because it mitigates regular stigmatization of long-term unemployment, especially for men. Specifically, recruiters judge them more mildly – particularly regarding flexibility – when they receive the supplement and still apply.

许多经济合作与发展组织国家在劳动力市场计划方面投入巨资，以延长职业生涯。虽然积极的劳动力市场计划经常受到评估，但人们对在经济上支持失业老人的被动计划却知之甚少。我们将重点放在后者上，调查那些参加了确保被解雇的老年人在领取正常失业救济金的同时还能获得公司补贴的制度的候选人的雇用机会。因此，我们进行了一个情景实验，让真正的招聘人员对虚构的应聘者进行评估，这些应聘者在有公司补贴和没有公司补贴的制度下失业的时间长短不一。由于招聘人员会对应聘者的可雇佣性和生产率进行评估，因此我们可以确定潜在的机制。总体而言，我们没有发现雇主方面的污名化会阻碍该计划中的老年失业者再就业。相反，长期失业者甚至能从这一制度中获益，因为它减轻了长期失业者，尤其是男性长期失业者经常受到的鄙视。具体地说，当他们领取补助金并仍在申请时，招聘人员对他们的评价会更温和--尤其是在灵活性方面。

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引用次数: 0

The evolution of veteran educational attainment gaps over the life cycle 退伍军人教育程度差距在生命周期中的演变

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 DEMOGRAPHY

Journal of Demographic Economics

Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1017/dem.2024.5

Jason Ward, Jeffrey B. Wenger, Teresa Kroeger

Individuals who serve in the military substitute work experience for post-secondary educational attainment after high school, leading to large educational attainment gaps between new veterans and observably similar nonveterans. Little is known about the evolution of these gaps by age and across cohorts. We investigate the life-cycle attainment of veterans relative to nonveterans using a synthetic panel data approach. Following five multiyear birth cohorts we find that, on average, veterans close a 20-percentage point gap in attainment of a bachelor's or greater over time and significantly outpace observably similar nonveterans in attainment of an associate's degree. Female and minority veterans exceeded the attainment of similar nonveterans over time, and more recent birth cohorts began with larger gaps but closed them at younger ages due to increasing levels of both enrollment and enrollment intensity. Our findings highlight the important role of military service in facilitating social mobility through educational attainment.

服过兵役的人在高中毕业后用工作经验替代中学后的教育程度，导致新退伍军人与可观察到的类似非退伍军人之间存在巨大的教育程度差距。人们对这些差距在不同年龄段和不同组群之间的演变知之甚少。我们采用合成面板数据方法研究了退伍军人相对于非退伍军人的生命周期教育程度。在五个多年出生队列中，我们发现退伍军人在获得学士学位或更高学位方面平均缩小了 20 个百分点的差距，在获得副学士学位方面明显超过了与退伍军人相似的非退伍军人。随着时间的推移，女性退伍军人和少数民族退伍军人的学业成绩超过了类似的非退伍军人，最近出生的新一批退伍军人开始时差距较大，但由于入学水平和入学强度不断提高，他们在较年轻时就缩小了差距。我们的研究结果凸显了兵役在通过教育程度促进社会流动性方面的重要作用。

引用次数: 0

Breaking the misery wheel? Fertility control, social mobility, and biological well-being in rural Spain (1835–1959) 打破苦难轮回？西班牙农村地区的生育控制、社会流动性和生物福祉（1835-1959 年）

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 DEMOGRAPHY

Journal of Demographic Economics

Pub Date : 2024-05-03 DOI: 10.1017/dem.2024.6

Francisco J. Marco-Gracia, Ángel Luis González-Esteban

Fertility control strategies became widespread in rural Spain through the twentieth century: a significant number of parents decided to reduce their marital fertility once the advantages of control strategies became widely known. This paper explores the impact of those practices on children through a comparative study of the heights and occupations of grandparents, parents, and children. We analyze more than 1,200 individuals from three different generations born between 1835 and 1959 in 14 rural Spanish villages, studying whether the advantages associated with fertility control were maintained over time favoring a better family status or whether they were diluted in the next generation. The largest increases in height were among children whose parents controlled their fertility by stopping having children before the mother's 36th birthday. However, it does not seem that this increase in biological well-being was accompanied by major episodes of upward social mobility.

二十世纪，控制生育的策略在西班牙农村地区开始普及：当控制生育策略的优势广为人知后，很多父母决定降低他们的婚姻生育率。本文通过对祖父母、父母和子女的身高和职业进行比较研究，探讨了这些做法对子女的影响。我们分析了 1835 年至 1959 年间在西班牙 14 个农村地区出生的三代人中的 1200 多人，研究与生育控制相关的优势是否会随着时间的推移而保持，从而有利于改善家庭状况，还是会在下一代中被淡化。父母在母亲 36 岁生日之前停止生育，从而控制了生育率的孩子，身高增幅最大。然而，这种生物福祉的增长似乎并没有伴随着社会向上流动的重大事件。

引用次数: 0

Household structure decisions and positive wealth shocks: a natural experiment from the Spanish Christmas lottery 家庭结构决策与正财富冲击：来自西班牙圣诞彩票的自然实验

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 DEMOGRAPHY

Journal of Demographic Economics

Pub Date : 2024-03-19 DOI: 10.1017/dem.2024.2

Levi Pérez, Álvaro Muñiz

This paper explores whether a positive unexpected exogenous (unearned) wealth shock affects household structure decisions in different Spanish regions. The Christmas draw of the Spanish National Lottery is used in a natural experiment as a proxy for exogenous random variations in provincial wealth. A static and dynamic linear panel event-study design allows for control of changing economic and demographic conditions at the province level and the dynamic effects on the analyzed decisions. The evidence is consistent with families getting divorced and having children when the province in which they live experiences an unexpected increase in wealth, but no conclusive effect on wedding plans is found.

本文探讨了西班牙不同地区的家庭结构决策是否会受到积极的意外外生（非所得）财富冲击的影响。在自然实验中，西班牙国家彩票的圣诞节开奖被用作省内财富外生随机变化的替代物。通过静态和动态线性面板事件研究设计，可以控制省一级不断变化的经济和人口状况，以及对所分析决策的动态影响。有证据表明，当家庭所在省份的财富出现意外增长时，这些家庭会离婚并生育子女，但没有发现对结婚计划有决定性的影响。

引用次数: 0

Can refugees improve native children's health?: evidence from Turkey 难民能否改善本地儿童的健康状况？

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 DEMOGRAPHY

Journal of Demographic Economics

Pub Date : 2024-03-18 DOI: 10.1017/dem.2024.1

Cansu Oymak, Jean-François Maystadt

Following the most dramatic migration episode of the 21st century, Turkey hosted the largest number of Syrian refugees in the world. This paper assesses the impact of the arrival of Syrian refugees on the Turkish children's health, with a focus on height – a standard nutritional outcome. Accounting for the endogenous choice of immigrant location, our results show that Turkish children residing in provinces with a large share of refugees exhibit a significant improvement in their height as compared to those living in provinces with fewer refugees. Against other potential channels, a refugee-induced increase in maternal unemployment and the associated increase in maternal care seem to explain the observed positive effect on children's health.

在 21 世纪最引人注目的移民事件之后，土耳其收容了世界上人数最多的叙利亚难民。本文评估了叙利亚难民的到来对土耳其儿童健康的影响，重点关注身高这一标准营养结果。考虑到移民地点选择的内生性，我们的研究结果表明，与居住在难民较少省份的土耳其儿童相比，居住在难民较多省份的土耳其儿童身高有显著提高。与其他潜在渠道相比，难民导致的产妇失业率上升以及与此相关的产妇护理增加似乎可以解释所观察到的对儿童健康的积极影响。

引用次数: 0

The impact of female education on fertility: evidence from Malawi Universal Primary Education program 女性教育对生育率的影响：马拉维普及初等教育计划的证据

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 DEMOGRAPHY

Journal of Demographic Economics

Pub Date : 2024-03-18 DOI: 10.1017/dem.2024.3

Tianheng Wang

This paper examines the impact of female education on fertility outcomes by using the Universal Primary Education (UPE) program in Malawi as a natural experiment. The finding indicates that the UPE policy improves rural women's educational attainment by 0.42 years and an additional year of female education decreases women's number of children ever born and the number of living children by 0.39 and 0.34, respectively. An analysis of potential mechanisms suggests that the decreased fertility rates are likely driven by the reduction in women's fertility preferences, the postponement of marriage, and the delay of motherhood. Contrarily, the study finds no evidence that increased female education affects women's labor force participation and the use of modern contraception.

本文以马拉维的普及初等教育计划（UPE）为自然实验，研究了女性教育对生育结果的影响。研究结果表明，普及初等教育政策使农村妇女的受教育年限提高了 0.42 年，女性受教育年限每增加一年，妇女的生育子女数和存活子女数就会分别减少 0.39 和 0.34。对潜在机制的分析表明，生育率下降的原因可能是妇女生育偏好降低、推迟结婚和推迟生育。相反，研究没有发现任何证据表明女性教育程度的提高会影响妇女的劳动力参与和现代避孕方法的使用。

引用次数: 0

The within-country distribution of brain drain and brain gain effects: A case study on Senegal 人才外流和人才回流效应的国内分布：塞内加尔案例研究

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 DEMOGRAPHY

Journal of Demographic Economics

Pub Date : 2024-02-13 DOI: 10.1017/dem.2023.27

Philippe Bocquier, Narcisse Cha'ngom, Frédéric Docquier, Joël Machado

Existing empirical literature provides converging evidence that selective emigration enhances human capital accumulation in the world's poorest countries. However, the within-country distribution of such brain gain effects has received limited attention. Focusing on Senegal, we provide evidence that the brain gain mechanism primarily benefits the wealthiest regions that are internationally connected and have better access to education. Conversely, human capital responses are negligible in regions lacking international connectivity, and even negative in better connected regions with inadequate educational opportunities. These results extend to internal migration, implying that highly vulnerable populations are trapped in the least developed areas.

现有的实证文献提供了趋同的证据，表明选择性移民会促进世界上最贫穷国家的人力资本积累。然而，这种人才回流效应在国内的分布情况却很少受到关注。以塞内加尔为例，我们提供的证据表明，人才回流机制主要惠及那些与国际接轨、拥有更好教育机会的最富裕地区。相反，在缺乏国际联系的地区，人力资本效应微乎其微，而在联系较好但教育机会不足的地区，人力资本效应甚至为负。这些结果延伸到国内移徙，意味着高度脆弱的人口被困在最不发达地区。

引用次数: 0

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全部 ACS Publications Elsevier ieeexplore Springer The Royal Society of Chemistry Wiley

期刊

Journal of Demographic Economics

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