How do El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and local meteorological factors affect the incidence of seasonal influenza in New York state

Abstract

Background

Research is lacking in examining how multiple climate factors affect the incidence of seasonal influenza. We investigated the associations between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), meteorological factors, and influenza incidence in New York State, United States.

Method

We collected emergency department visit data for influenza from the New York State Department of Health. ENSO index was obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Meteorological factors, Google Flu Search Index (GFI), and Influenza-like illness (ILI) data in New York State were also collected. Wavelet analysis was used to quantitatively estimate the coherence and phase difference of ENSO, temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and absolute humidity with emergency department visits of influenza in New York State. Generalized additive models (GAM) were employed to examine the exposure-response relationships between ENSO, weather, and influenza. GFI and ILI data were used to simulate synchronous influenza visits.

Results

The influenza epidemic in New York State had multiple periodic and was primarily on the 1-year scale. The incidence of influenza closely followed the low ENSO index by an average of two months, and the lag period of ENSO on influenza was shorter during 2015–2018. Low temperature in the previous 2 weeks and low absolute humidity in the prior week were positively associated with influenza incidence in New York State. We found an l-shaped association between ENSO index and influenza, a parabolic relationship between temperature in the previous two weeks and influenza, and a linear negative association between absolute humidity in the previous week and influenza. The simulation models including GFI and ILI had higher accuracy for influenza visit estimation.

Conclusions

Low ENSO index, low temperature, and low absolute humidity may drive the influenza epidemics in New York State. The findings can help us deepen the understanding of the climate-influenza association, and help to develop an influenza forecasting model.