A method for evaluating population and infrastructure exposed to natural hazards: tests and results for two recent Tonga tsunamis.

IF 3.8 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Geoenvironmental Disasters Pub Date : 2023-01-01 Epub Date: 2023-02-16 DOI:10.1186/s40677-023-00235-8

Bruce Enki Oscar Thomas, Jean Roger, Yanni Gunnell, Salman Ashraf

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Abstract

Background: Coastal communities are highly exposed to ocean- and -related hazards but often lack an accurate population and infrastructure database. On January 15, 2022 and for many days thereafter, the Kingdom of Tonga was cut off from the rest of the world by a destructive tsunami associated with the Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha'apai volcanic eruption. This situation was made worse by COVID-19-related lockdowns and no precise idea of the magnitude and pattern of destruction incurred, confirming Tonga's position as second out of 172 countries ranked by the World Risk Index 2018. The occurrence of such events in remote island communities highlights the need for (1) precisely knowing the distribution of buildings, and (2) evaluating what proportion of those would be vulnerable to a tsunami.

Methods and results: A GIS-based dasymetric mapping method, previously tested in New Caledonia for assessing and calibrating population distribution at high resolution, is improved and implemented in less than a day to jointly map population clusters and critical elevation contours based on runup scenarios, and is tested against destruction patterns independently recorded in Tonga after the two recent tsunamis of 2009 and 2022. Results show that ~ 62% of the population of Tonga lives in well-defined clusters between sea level and the 15 m elevation contour. The patterns of vulnerability thus obtained for each island of the archipelago allow exposure and potential for cumulative damage to be ranked as a function of tsunami magnitude and source area.

Conclusions: By relying on low-cost tools and incomplete datasets for rapid implementation in the context of natural disasters, this approach works for all types of natural hazards, is easily transferable to other insular settings, can assist in guiding emergency rescue targets, and can help to elaborate future land-use planning priorities for disaster risk reduction purposes.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40677-023-00235-8.

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评估受自然灾害影响的人口和基础设施的方法：对汤加最近两次海啸的测试和结果。

背景：沿海社区极易受到海洋灾害和相关灾害的影响，但往往缺乏准确的人口和基础设施数据库。2022 年 1 月 15 日及其后多日，汤加王国因洪加-汤加-洪加哈帕伊火山爆发引发的破坏性海啸而与世隔绝。由于与 COVID-19 相关的封锁和对所造成破坏的规模和模式没有确切的了解，这种情况变得更加糟糕，这也证实了汤加在 2018 年世界风险指数排名的 172 个国家中位居第二。在偏远岛屿社区发生此类事件凸显了以下需求：(1) 精确了解建筑物的分布情况；(2) 评估其中有多大比例的建筑物易受海啸影响：以前曾在新喀里多尼亚测试过一种基于地理信息系统（GIS）的数据测绘方法，用于评估和校准高分辨率的人口分布情况。该方法经过改进，在不到一天的时间内就得到了实施，可根据海啸上升情况联合绘制人口集群和临界海拔等高线，并根据汤加在 2009 年和 2022 年最近两次海啸后独立记录的破坏模式进行了测试。结果显示，汤加约 62% 的人口居住在海平面和 15 米等高线之间的明确集群中。由此得出的汤加群岛各岛屿的脆弱性模式，可以根据海啸强度和海啸源区域对暴露程度和累积损害的可能性进行排序：通过依靠低成本工具和不完整的数据集在自然灾害背景下快速实施，这种方法适用于所有类型的自然灾害，很容易转移到其他岛屿环境中，可以帮助指导紧急救援目标，并有助于为减少灾害风险制定未来土地利用规划的优先事项：在线版本包含补充材料，可查阅 10.1186/s40677-023-00235-8。

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来源期刊

Geoenvironmental Disasters Social Sciences-Geography, Planning and Development

CiteScore

8.90

自引率

6.20%

发文量

期刊介绍： Geoenvironmental Disasters is an international journal with a focus on multi-disciplinary applied and fundamental research and the effects and impacts on infrastructure, society and the environment of geoenvironmental disasters triggered by various types of geo-hazards (e.g. earthquakes, volcanic activity, landslides, tsunamis, intensive erosion and hydro-meteorological events). The integrated study of Geoenvironmental Disasters is an emerging and composite field of research interfacing with areas traditionally within civil engineering, earth sciences, atmospheric sciences and the life sciences. It centers on the interactions within and between the Earth''s ground, air and water environments, all of which are affected by climate, geological, morphological and anthropological processes; and biological and ecological cycles. Disasters are dynamic forces which can change the Earth pervasively, rapidly, or abruptly, and which can generate lasting effects on the natural and built environments. The journal publishes research papers, case studies and quick reports of recent geoenvironmental disasters, review papers and technical reports of various geoenvironmental disaster-related case studies. The focus on case studies and quick reports of recent geoenvironmental disasters helps to advance the practical understanding of geoenvironmental disasters and to inform future research priorities; they are a major component of the journal. The journal aims for the rapid publication of research papers at a high scientific level. The journal welcomes proposals for special issues reflecting the trends in geoenvironmental disaster reduction and monothematic issues. Researchers and practitioners are encouraged to submit original, unpublished contributions.