Climate Change and the Future of International Order

J. Gupta
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Abstract

On the basis of the scientific consensus on the dangers of climate change, this issue emerged as a partial order in the 1990s and was developed as an international regime in five phases. This chapter analyzes how the functional order evolved throughout the phases, and assesses the respective approaches, actors, and implications. Major steps for the development of the regime were the Kyoto Protocol (KP) and the Paris Agreement (PA) though the international agreements at times and the fight against climate change in general lack the full support from several key states like the USA, China, Japan, and Russia. The order lost its predictability but retains its legitimacy, leading, however, to questionable prospects on its effectiveness. Therefore, its greatest challenge may be to change the approach from international legal action to the restructuring of societies.
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气候变化与未来国际秩序
在对气候变化危险的科学共识的基础上,这一问题在20世纪90年代作为部分秩序出现,并分五个阶段发展成为一个国际制度。本章分析了功能秩序在各个阶段是如何演变的,并评估了各自的方法、参与者和影响。该制度发展的主要步骤是《京都议定书》(KP)和《巴黎协定》(PA),尽管有时国际协议和应对气候变化的斗争总体上缺乏美国、中国、日本和俄罗斯等几个关键国家的全力支持。该秩序失去了可预测性,但保留了其合法性,然而,其有效性的前景令人怀疑。因此,其最大的挑战可能是将方法从国际法律行动转变为社会结构改革。
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