ASSESSMENT AND PREDICTION OF THE COMPLEX OBJECTS STATE: APPLICATIOIN FOR INFORMATION SECURITY

Abstract

The goal of the study is to create a method for estimating and predicting the state of objects with a non-trivial internal structure, multifunctional elements and complex relationships between them. An important feature of the goal is the independence of its solution from the area of operation of complex objects. The task of applying this approach in the field of information security is set. Research methods: system analysis, analytical modeling methods, statistical methods and machine learning methods, development of program code for the implementation of assessment and forecasting algorithms. Result: an ontological model of a generalized subject area is introduced that describes the main elements and their relationships. An analysis of the domestic scientific literature over the past few years and an analysis of the solutions existing in them are carried out, as well as their criteria-based comparison. The principles of constructing invariant methods of estimation and forecasting are developed. A scheme of a new method of estimation and forecasting is proposed. A description is given of generalized algorithms for the functioning of the assessment and prediction components, as well as their applicability for solving problems in the field of information security in the interests of countering network attacks.