Economic models of climate change: systematic review of benefits, limitations, and future directions

B.K.M. Nadeetharu, U. Kulatunga, Mjb Ingirige
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Abstract

Climate change substantially impacts the community's livelihood, affecting their socioeconomic status. Considering the severity of impacts in the developing country context, economic models have been identified as a feasible application to determine the socioeconomic impacts of climate change. Consequently, this study provides benefits, limitations and future directions of economic models, which can be used as guidance to apply the economic models to determine the community impacts of climate change and thereby contribute to sustainable development. A systematic literature review has been adapted as a methodology to identify 18 benefits and 14 limitations of economic models of climate change. In addition, 18 future directions for applying and improving economic models of climate change have been derived. Benefits are mainly associated with the financial and decision-making aspects, while the limitations highly encounter due to possibility of producing misleading results and uncertainty. Future directions of economic modelling of climate change mainly concentrate on modelling for uncertainty and integrating multiple climatic conditions, livelihood status, models, technologies, and stakeholders in economic modelling. The findings are helpful for policymakers to successfully apply the economic models to address the climate change issues in the community. Further, the community will ultimately benefit from the set of policies and management strategies that occurred with the guidance of these findings. Further research can be conducted on addressing the identified limitations of the economic models and developing them.
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气候变化的经济模型:效益、限制和未来方向的系统回顾
气候变化严重影响了社区的生计,影响了他们的社会经济地位。考虑到发展中国家环境影响的严重性,经济模型已被确定为确定气候变化的社会经济影响的可行应用。因此,本研究提供了经济模型的优势、局限性和未来发展方向,可为应用经济模型确定气候变化对社区的影响,从而促进可持续发展提供指导。系统的文献综述已被改编为一种方法,以确定气候变化经济模型的18个优点和14个局限性。此外,还提出了18个应用和改进气候变化经济模型的未来方向。收益主要与财务和决策方面有关,而由于产生误导性结果和不确定性的可能性而高度遇到限制。未来气候变化经济建模的发展方向主要集中在不确定性建模和经济建模中多种气候条件、生计状况、模型、技术和利益相关者的整合。这些发现有助于决策者成功地将经济模型应用于解决社区气候变化问题。此外,社区最终将受益于在这些调查结果的指导下产生的一套政策和管理战略。进一步的研究可以解决经济模型的局限性并加以发展。
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