Toward Sustainable Water System: Modeling Pipe Failure in Water Distribution Networks

Abstract

The deterioration and failure of water distribution networks bring about grave consequences to urban communities. These events may include undesired occurrences of pipe breaks, interrupting supply, water loss, contaminant intrusion, and reduced revenue. This accentuates the need for pipe break and risk of failure models, which is an intricate and challenging field of research. The objective of this paper is to develop a risk of failure model based on regression analysis approach. The model is developed using seven years of historical data collected from the city of El Pedregal in Peru. The regression analysis-based model is validated versus different statistical indicators, in which the results revealed the coherency of the model with an R2 of 98%. The proposed model is a decision support tool, expected to assist infrastructure managers and civil engineers in their plans and decision-making.