5. The Accumulation and Demography Connection in East Asia

Abstract

This essay will seek answers to questions like: How much of the impressive rise in East Asian savings rates during the economic miracle can be explained by the impressive decline in dependency burdens rather than by policy or by culture? Have changing dependency rates had bigger impact on investment or savings? How much of the fall in external capital dependency in East Asia since the 1970s can be explained by the same demographic forces? Will the young Southeast Asian tigers become net capital exporters by the year 2025 as they fill up with productive adults? What will happen to savings and investment when the old Northeast Asian tigers begin to fill up with retired adults? (excerpt)