SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH FOR WHOLE LIFE CYCLE COST MODELLING OF RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PROJECTS IN UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

Abstract

Purpose – Project management field is experiencing many challenges to maintain its performance within planned budget. Latest research focused on cost modelling and estimation. The significance of cost modelling comes from the forecasted information value. It is needed in the United Arab Emirates to satisfy the future vision and strategies. Methodology – This article aims to model project's whole life cycle costs of residential buildings in UAE at the preconstruction stage, choosing VENSIM system dynamics approach. The objective is to simulate dynamically cost over time for all outputs. The approach of this research is pure quantitative. It requires mapping diagrams and mathematical computation systems. DEMO simulation and real data verification modelling are used to ensure the outputs’ validity. The mean absolute deviation and mean square error are used for measuring the estimation accuracy. Findings – This research proved that VENSIM system dynamics approach can model and estimate residential building project’s cost and cash flow dynamically through time, with high accuracy, in the United Arab Emirates. Unique contribution to theory, practice and policy – This research provides the first cost estimation modelling for residential projects’ whole life cycle using VENSIM system dynamics approach. It is opening new research opportunities in cost modelling and estimating fields. The theoretical-implications, practical-implications, and limitations are presented in the conclusion for future research.