Risk Analysis of Natech Accidents Trigged by Lightnings and Floods

Abstract

Natural Hazard Triggered Technical Accidents (Natech) cause serious loss of life, environment and property and affect life negatively. Risk analysis studies of these accidents are important. In this study, it was aimed to analyze the risk of Natech accidents for Türkiye. Statistical evaluation of Natech accidents was made through various databases for selecting the province and organization where the application will be made. Because of these evaluations, two exemplary gas storage organizations (Organization 1: includes 5 cylindrical tanks of the same volume, Organization 2: includes 4 cylindrical tanks of the same volume and 1 large volume spherical tank) were selected within the scope of the legislation in Erzurum, which stands out in terms of flood and lightning risk. Flood-triggered Natech accidents were analyzed using the preliminary hazard list and Fine-Kinney methods, and lightning-triggered Natech accidents were analyzed through the YILKOMER and RADSAN programs. For Organization 1 and Organization 2, the protection level was determined as 3 and 4, respectively, according to the effectiveness value. While 34 hazard effects were graded with the preliminary hazard list for Organization 1 and 22 hazard effects by Fine-Kinney; for Organization 2, hazard effects were graded 37 with the preliminary hazard list and 28 with Fine-Kinney. Because of the analyses carried out, Organization 2 was found to be more risky in terms of Natech accidents triggered by both lightning and flooding. It can be said that this situation is because the relevant organization is located in a more congested area and within the organized industry, and that it contains more voluminous tanks. It is important that emergency plans be prepared by considering the Natech risks, based on the characteristics of the industrial facility and the type of natural disaster in the region.