Performability Model for the Medium Priority Transport Systems

Abstract

The mobility of large urban centers has been affected by high vehicle traffic, which demands solutions from managers that can enable improvements in public transport. An alternative that has proven to be viable is the investment in medium Priority transport, such as BRT, VLT, among others, as they do not compete directly with other vehicles on the road, and operate on exclusive routes, although in competition with general traffic, with a differentiated fee collection method (before boarding), thus allowing greater confidence in the vehicle at its destination within a planned time interval, improving the cost-benefit ratio. Evaluating metrics such as performance, reliability and performability help in the planning, monitoring and optimization of STUMPs. This article presents hierarchical models, using CTMC modeling techniques, to evaluate metrics such as performance and performability. The results show that these models pointed out the peak intervals most likely to reach the destination in the shortest time, in addition to showing the probability of the vehicle being affected by the failure in each interval. It was also possible to establish bases for replicating the model in different scenarios to enable new comparative studies.