Reliable project scheduling with combination of risk management and critical chain schedule

Abstract

This paper proposes a reliable project scheduling approach, considering the integration of both risk management and critical chain schedule analysis. Various risks and uncertainties exist in projects. These may not only prevent the projects to be completed within budget and time limit, but also threaten the quality, safety and operational needs. In the proposed method the potential project risks are analyzed and risk response strategies are developed by fuzzy failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) and then varying effect of each risk over each activity. The project total time can then be quantified and simulated by Monte Carlo simulation that is effective in uncertain conditions due to its capability of converting uncertainty to risk judgmentally in projects. Following this procedure Fault tree analysis and event tree analysis will be used to get risk mitigation. Eventually, for a reliable schedule we distribute a critical chain schedule which able to implement the project as planned and obtain reasonable Feeding Buffer time and Project Buffer time.