Decision Support for Infection Outbreak Analysis: the case of the Diamond Princess cruise ship

Abstract

This paper focuses on designing a CI decision support to address rare events such as disease outbreaks in a ‘closed’ environment such as a cruise ship. We focus on a case study of the COVID-19 outbreak that happened on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship in 2020. It considers a graphical probabilistic model such as Bayesian Network. We consider this causal model to be a core of an intelligent decision support tool to help in emergency management. To prove this hypothesis, the prototype of a decision support tool was implemented and used to evaluate different scenarios. The results show that such system equipped with a reasoning engine is capable of evaluating the pandemic scenario risks, thus helping assess the impacts of certain preventive measures, and damages.