Prediction of Ambient Dose Equivalent Rates for 30 Years after the Fukushima Accident and its Technological Development

Abstract

The Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) has been developing a model designed to predict the distribution of ambient dose equivalent rates within 80 km of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (hereinafter referred to as the “Fukushima Daiichi NPP”). A vast amount of measurement data on ambient dose equivalent rates was used to predict changes in the distribution of such rates over a period of 30 years following the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident by deriving model parameters according to the respective local characteristics inside and outside the evacuation zones. Both uncertainty analysis and validation of this model were conducted. This commentary characterizes the prediction model for the distribution of ambient dose equivalent rates and its parameters. It also presents ambient dose equivalent rate forecast maps that have been generated using this model.