Running around in circles? The cyclical relationship between Turkey and the European Union

Abstract

Since the establishment of the republic, Turkey’s development has evolved in ebbs and flows. Periods of growth, modernization and political liberalization have alternated with years of political instability, violence and economic crisis. Since the late 1990s, these cyclical trends have run parallel to Turkey’s relationship with the European Union (EU). Turkey’s ties with the Union have been far from linear. While generally moving towards greater levels of integration, relations have been often marred by moments of tension and crisis. The argument developed below is that as Turkey’s integration with the EU has proceeded, the ups and downs in EU–Turkey relations have increasingly interacted with Turkey’s domestic transformation, at times promoting change while at other times hindering modernization and democratization. This paper delves into this interaction, exploring how and why the EU dimension has affected the acceleration, deceleration or retreat of Turkey’s reform process. The principal claim made here is that EU relations have acted as a key external factor in Turkey’s internal development. This does not mean that the Union has been the principal explanatory variable of Turkey’s domestic transformation. Wider international changes and internal factors carry much more weight in determining domestic trends in Turkey. EU relations, however, have been and will continue to represent a fundamental explanatory variable, precisely because of the ways in which they impinge upon domestic factors within Turkey itself. This paper first briefly outlines the chronology of Turkey’s turbulent path to Europe and the matching trends in its domestic environment, highlighting how EU relations have impacted upon the process of domestic transformation. It then delves into the endogenous drivers of Turkey’s evolution, indicating the principal channels through which these domestic determinants have interacted with the wider setting of EU–Turkey ties.