Research on the trend of Chinese stock market based on Monte Carlo simulation method

Abstract

: The quantitative trading strategy of stock market in developed countries has been very mature, but the quantitative trading strategy of China's stock market has only begun to develop in recent years. In this paper, the closing levels of CSI 300 Index from 2002 to 2022 were selected as the research objects. Monte Carlo simulation method was used to simulate the closing levels of the next 30 trading days, and the simulation results of the last trading day were counted and analyzed. It is found that most of the results of Monte Carlo simulation are in the reasonable range, and the occasional extreme case has similar cases in history. Therefore, the use of Monte Carlo simulation can roughly simulate the future period of income and risk situation, to provide a certain degree of help for investors to make decisions.