Comparing a transmission planning study of cascading with historical line outage data

Abstract

The paper presents an initial comparison of a transmission planning study of cascading outages with a statistical analysis of historical outages. The planning study identifies the most vulnerable places in the Idaho system and outages that lead to cascading and interruption of load. This analysis is based on a number of case scenarios (short-term and long-term) that cover different seasonal and operating conditions. The historical analysis processes Idaho outage data and estimates statistics, using the number of transmission line outages as a measure of the extent of cascading. An initial number of lines outaged can lead to a cascading propagation of further outages. How much line outages propagate is estimated from Idaho Power outage data. Also, the paper discusses some similarities in the results and highlights the different assumptions of the two approaches to cascading failure analysis.