Simulating Precipitation and Temperature Trends in Pakistan using three GCMs under RCP8.5 scenario

Seventh International Conference on Advances in Civil, Structural and Mechanical Engineering - CSM 2018 Pub Date : 2018-10-27 DOI:10.15224/978-1-63248-163-4-15

I. Hassan

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Abstract

Precipitation and temperature are the two main factors considered in studies related to climate change and impact of global warming. Such studies involve application of results of climate models. US geological survey developed a web site [1] which provides visualization and access to global and regional (downscaled) climate data. In this study, results of three GCMs i.e. bcc-csm1-1m, HadGEM2ES and GFDL-CM3, each with RCP8.5 scenarios, have been applied to study changes in precipitation and temperature over Pakistan. The results of three models showed that temperature variation is expected to range from 1.5-2.35 C during 2025-2049, 3.23-4.48 C during 2050-2074, and 4.49-6.57 C during 2071-2095. Taking the average of the three models, this change is 1.89C, 3.82C and 5.49C for the simulated periods of 2025-250, 20502074 and 2071-2095, respectively, with reference to modelled values for the base period (1980-2004). The precipitation variation is expected to be 3.31%, 8.16% and 9.45% when worked as average for above three models during simulated periods of 2025-250, 2050-2074 and 20712095, respectively.

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RCP8.5情景下3种gcm对巴基斯坦降水和温度趋势的模拟

在有关气候变化和全球变暖影响的研究中，降水和温度是考虑的两个主要因素。这类研究涉及气候模式结果的应用。美国地质调查局开发了一个网站[1]，提供全球和区域(缩小规模)气候数据的可视化和访问。本研究利用RCP8.5情景下的bcc-csm1-1m、HadGEM2ES和GFDL-CM3三种GCMs的结果研究了巴基斯坦降水和温度的变化。3种模式的预测结果表明，2025-2049年、2050-2074年和2071-2095年的温度变化范围分别为1.5 ~ 2.35℃、3.23 ~ 4.48℃和4.49 ~ 6.57℃。取三个模式的平均值，相对于基期(1980-2004)的模拟值，2025-250、20502074和2071-2095的模拟期，这一变化分别为1.89C、3.82C和5.49C。在2025 ~ 250年、2050 ~ 2074年和20712095年期间，上述3种模式的平均降水变化分别为3.31%、8.16%和9.45%。

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Seventh International Conference on Advances in Civil, Structural and Mechanical Engineering - CSM 2018

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