Analysis on the Life Cycle Evolution of Tourism Destinations in Hubei Province Based on the Logistic Equation

Wang Xiuli, Xiao Li, Xue Hong, Zheng Zijing
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Abstract

Based on the life cycle theory of tourism destinations, a logistic equation is constructed for the total tourism revenue and the total number of tourists in Hubei Province from 1986 to 2020, and the logistic parameters are estimated by the least square method to obtain the total tourism revenue and the total number of tourists in Hubei Province The change trend chart. Finally, combined with the characteristics that affect the life cycle of tourism destinations, the future development countermeasures for the tourism industry in Hubei Province are proposed. The innovation of this research is that it has a long-time span, combined with two indicators for comprehensive research and judgment, and the conclusions reached are more comprehensive.
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基于Logistic方程的湖北省旅游目的地生命周期演化分析
基于旅游地生命周期理论,对1986 - 2020年湖北省旅游总收入和旅游总人数构建logistic方程,并利用最小二乘法对logistic参数进行估计,得到湖北省旅游总收入和旅游总人数的变化趋势图。最后,结合影响旅游地生命周期的特点,提出了湖北省旅游产业未来发展的对策。本研究的创新之处在于跨度较长,结合两个指标进行综合研究和判断,得出的结论更加全面。
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