IMPACT OF THE SPECIAL MILITARY OPERATION IN UKRAINE ON RELATIONS BETWEEN RUSSIA AND TURKEY IN 2022

I. Vedeneev
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Abstract

The article is devoted to the consideration of the changes that have taken place in relations between Russia and Turkey in 2022 in connection with the conduct of a special military operation in Ukraine. It is concluded that the relationship did not take on a negative character, on the contrary, Russia and Turkey have new areas for cooperation. However, the conflict of interest persists in almost all areas of relations between countries. At the same time, not all areas of cooperation can be developed in full (primarily because of the threat of sanctions against Turkish individuals and companies interacting with Russia). Currently, Russia is doubling its trade turnover with Turkey, is implementing the construction of the Akkuyu nuclear power plant and is also planning the creation of an «international gas hub» in Turkey. From our point of view, the main threat to Russian interests comes from too close cooperation with Turkey in the economy. The implementation of the gas hub project will be able to partially compensate for the loss of Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2, but it is fraught with becoming dependent on Turkish policy on other issues, in particular, in the Middle East and the South Caucasus.
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乌克兰特别军事行动对2022年俄土关系的影响
这篇文章专门讨论了俄罗斯和土耳其在2022年因在乌克兰进行特别军事行动而发生的关系变化。结论是,这种关系并没有呈现出负面的特征,相反,俄罗斯和土耳其有新的合作领域。然而,利益冲突在国与国之间关系的几乎所有领域都存在。与此同时,并不是所有的合作领域都能得到充分发展(主要是因为与俄罗斯交往的土耳其个人和公司面临制裁的威胁)。目前,俄罗斯与土耳其的贸易额翻了一番,正在实施阿库尤核电站的建设,并计划在土耳其建立“国际天然气中心”。从我们的角度来看,对俄罗斯利益的主要威胁来自与土耳其在经济上的过于密切的合作。天然气枢纽项目的实施将能够部分弥补Nord Stream和Nord Stream 2的损失,但它充满了在其他问题上依赖土耳其政策的担忧,特别是在中东和南高加索地区。
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