Analysis on Influencing Factors of China's Service Export Trade Volume Based on Multiple Regression Method

Ying Zhong, Zhi-xian Zhou, Junyi Huang, Jiawei Yao, Xinyi Huang, Yu Lin
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Abstract

In recent years, China's service trade has developed rapidly, but behind the high growth, there is a long-term deficit in service trade. With the increasing role of service trade in a country's economy, how to promote the development of China's service trade and improve the deficit plays an important role in China's economic development. This paper takes the export volume of China's service trade from 1999 to 2019 as the research object, establishes an empirical model affecting the export volume of service trade by using econometric model, and makes an empirical analysis by using multiple regression method. Through the establishment of the model and descriptive statistics, this paper understands the basic situation of the data, intuitively analyzes the preliminary relationship between variables through scatter diagram, through regression analysis Statistical inference, economic significance test, econometric test and correction, get the final reliable model, and give relevant policy suggestions according to the results.
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基于多元回归方法的中国服务出口贸易额影响因素分析
近年来,中国服务贸易发展迅速,但在高增长的背后,长期存在服务贸易逆差。随着服务贸易在一国经济中的作用越来越大,如何促进中国服务贸易的发展,改善服务贸易逆差对中国经济发展具有重要意义。本文以1999 - 2019年中国服务贸易出口量为研究对象,运用计量经济学模型建立影响服务贸易出口量的实证模型,并运用多元回归方法进行实证分析。本文通过模型的建立和描述性统计,了解数据的基本情况,通过散点图直观地分析变量之间的初步关系,通过回归分析统计推断、经济显著性检验、计量检验和修正,得到最终可靠的模型,并根据结果给出相关政策建议。
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