The global energy challenges of the 21st century and the potential Russian contribution to world and regional nuclear power

A. Gagarinski
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Abstract

The paper considers the world energy demand until the middle of the 21st century, as well as the possible solutions for this challenge. On the basis of the mathematical model developed at the Kurchatov Institute in 2003-2005, the vision of the global nuclear energy system and its potential contribution to the energy mix was analysed. The energy mix picture by mid-century would contain an 'unsatisfied demand' area (i.e., resources that should be used to meet the projected energy demand). Thus, the global energy challenges of the 21st century energy supply do not impose any upper limit on nuclear energy development, the scale of which would be determined by development opportunities. The key nuclear energy requirements, including the fuel supply, the need for innovative technologies and the extension of application spheres, are determined by the scale of its use. Being one of the founders of the First Nuclear Era, Russia has a unique experience in solving the key nuclear energy problems of the 20th century and is capable of making a worthy contribution to the challenges faced in the 21st century.
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21世纪的全球能源挑战以及俄罗斯对世界和地区核电的潜在贡献
本文考虑了到21世纪中叶的世界能源需求,以及应对这一挑战的可能解决方案。在库尔恰托夫研究所2003-2005年开发的数学模型的基础上,分析了全球核能系统的前景及其对能源结构的潜在贡献。到本世纪中叶的能源结构图将包含一个“未满足的需求”区域(即应用于满足预计能源需求的资源)。因此,21世纪全球能源供应的挑战对核能的发展没有上限,核能的发展规模取决于发展机遇。关键的核能需求,包括燃料供应、创新技术的需要和应用领域的扩大,是由核能的使用规模决定的。作为第一个核时代的奠基者之一,俄罗斯在解决20世纪的关键核能问题方面有着独特的经验,有能力为21世纪面临的挑战做出有价值的贡献。
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