Expressway Emergency Resources Demand Forecasting Based on Neural Network

Liu Jin
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Abstract

Expressway traffic accidents seriously threaten the personal property security. And emergency resources are the basis and premise of accident rescue. Thus the emergency resource demand prediction of expressway is of great significance. The influence factors of emergency resource demand is analyzed in this paper, and neural network programming is carried out on the highway emergency resource demand. Finally, combining trained of neural network and case analysis, it achieves emergency resource demand projections for the new case of the emergency center. The results show that the BP neural network can form the inherent law of highway emergency resource demand after training, self-learning and self-adaptation, and the results can meet the prediction error precision. So the results of neural network prediction can provide scientific allocation of expressway emergency resource with reasonable reference.
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基于神经网络的高速公路应急资源需求预测
高速公路交通事故严重威胁人身财产安全。应急资源是事故救援的基础和前提。因此,高速公路应急资源需求预测具有重要意义。分析了公路应急资源需求的影响因素,对公路应急资源需求进行了神经网络规划。最后,将神经网络训练与案例分析相结合,实现了应急中心新案例的应急资源需求预测。结果表明,BP神经网络经过训练、自学习和自适应,能够形成公路应急资源需求的内在规律,且预测结果能够满足预测误差精度。因此,神经网络预测结果可为高速公路应急资源的科学配置提供合理参考。
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