Expansionary monetary policy and its side effects

Jacek Tomkiewicz
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Abstract

While assessing the effectiveness of anti-crisis macroeconomic policy from the point of view of the length and depth of the recession induced by a crisis, it can be concluded that governments and central banks have fulfilled their role correctly (Mishkin, 2009) – the recession measured by a decrease in the GDP was relatively shallow and short, obviously with some exceptions, such as Greece, where the symptoms of recovery in the real sphere are still not visible today. On the other hand, however, there are many doubts about the future effectiveness of monetary policy instruments – nominal rates of a central bank cannot be further reduced; the policy pertaining to the establishment of the level of minimum reserves of banks has practically ceased to be of any importance in view of the enormous funds amassed by banks. These are dilemmas pertaining to the required reaction of the central banks upon the appearance of speculative bubbles (Mishkin, 2011). Many controversies arise in connection with the side effects of the expansive monetary policy implemented by the main central banks in the world (BIS, 2012). An exceptionally loose monetary policy constitutes a serious hazard for the appearance of speculative bubbles in some markets, and emerging economies must face challenges connected with investors’ actions who, within the so-called ‘carry trade’, destabilise the exchange rates and increase the inflation pressure in countries such as Brazil and India. The aim of this paper is to indicate that the monetary policy conducted since 2008 by the most important central banks in the world is significantly contributing to the deepening of the level of income inequality in contemporary economies. In the first part of the text, apart from preliminary remarks, the structural reasons for macroeconomic inequities, which have accumulated since 2007, will be presented. Next, the channels of influence of this monetary policy on the income structure in the current situation of the global economy will be analysed.
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扩张性货币政策及其副作用
在从危机引发的衰退的长度和深度的角度评估反危机宏观经济政策的有效性时,可以得出结论,政府和中央银行已经正确地履行了他们的角色(Mishkin, 2009) -以GDP下降衡量的衰退相对较浅且较短,显然有一些例外,例如希腊,其实际领域复苏的症状今天仍然不可见。然而,另一方面,人们对货币政策工具的未来有效性存在许多疑问——央行的名义利率不能进一步降低;考虑到银行积累的巨额资金,有关建立银行最低准备金水平的政策实际上已不再具有任何重要性。这些困境与中央银行在投机泡沫出现时所需的反应有关(Mishkin, 2011)。世界主要中央银行实施扩张性货币政策的副作用引起了许多争议(BIS, 2012)。异常宽松的货币政策对某些市场出现投机泡沫构成严重威胁,新兴经济体必须面对与投资者行为相关的挑战,这些投资者在所谓的“套息交易”中破坏了汇率的稳定,增加了巴西和印度等国的通胀压力。本文的目的是表明,自2008年以来,世界上最重要的中央银行实施的货币政策对当代经济中收入不平等水平的加深做出了重大贡献。在正文的第一部分,除了初步评论外,将介绍自2007年以来积累的宏观经济不平等的结构性原因。接下来,分析在当前全球经济形势下,货币政策对收入结构的影响渠道。
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