The Psychology of Public Opinion

Abstract

Both the measurement and scholarly study of public opinion have a long history. Almost two centuries have passed since the publication of the first public opinion poll: the Harrisburg Pennsylvanian newspaper’s coverage of voters’ opinions in the 1824 presidential race between John Quincy Adams and Andrew Jackson (Madonna & Young, 2002). Over eight decades have elapsed since the journal Public Opinion Quarterly, devoted to research on public opinion, was founded. Today, polls are used to measure public opinion on sociopolitical issues in more than 90% of all countries (Frankovic et al., 2017). In any democracy, public opinion plays a central role, and understanding how these opinions are formed and how they shape people and politicians’ actions is of vital importance. But what is public opinion? Susan Herbst (1993) called it ‘one of the most widely used yet least understood constructs’ (p. 438). Accordingly, a review of research on public opinion must begin by considering what exactly public opinion entails. This can be challenging, given that different participants in the political process may define public opinion in different ways (Herbst, 1998). For example, a person may define public opinion as an aggregate of individual opinions, as it is measured in polls. But public opinion could also be defined as the majority opinion on a topic, or as the general societal consensus on an issue (Herbst, 1993). Others argue that public opinion does not exist at all, but is merely a projection of the political elite or the media leveraged for self-interested purposes (Lippmann, 1922). When defining public opinion, identifying the kinds of opinions that may be held among the public as public opinion is critical. After all, studies of public opinion do not concern themselves with any attitude or belief held among the public. It is not a matter of public opinion whether people believe that the sky is blue. Instead, the study of public opinion is restricted to studying issues that are matters of public debate, or where there is uncertainty regarding public consensus on an issue. Notably, there may be a lack of public consensus on issues where there is in fact consensus among other sub-groups in society (e.g., among scientists), such as when it comes to opinions about climate change or the hazards of vaccination. The hallmark of public opinion is that, among the general public, there is uncertainty regarding the consensus on the issue. But being a matter of public debate is not the only criterion for issues of public opinion, as there are issues on which there may be public disagreement, but where the issue does not hold serious enough societal consequences to be deemed a matter of public opinion. For instance, it is not a matter of public opinion whether people prefer chocolate to vanilla ice cream. Instead, the study of public opinion is restricted to issues that hold significance for society. For example, whether people like a